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Median-based seasonal adjustment in the presence of seasonal volatility

Author

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  • Cayton, Peter Julian
  • Bersales, Lisa Grace

Abstract

Philippine seasonal time series data tends to have unstable seasonal behavior, called seasonal volatility. Current Philippine seasonal adjustment methods use X-11-ARIMA, which has been shown to be poor in the presence of seasonal volatility. A modification of the Census X-11 method for seasonal adjustment is devised by changing the moving average filters into median-based filtering procedures using Tukey repeated median smoothing techniques. To study the ability of the new procedure, simulation experiments and application to real Philippine time series data were conducted and compared to Census X-11-ARIMA methods. The seasonal adjustment results will be evaluated based on their revision history, smoothness and accuracy in estimating the non-seasonal component. The results of research open the idea of using robust nonlinear filtering methods as an alternative in seasonal adjustment when moving average filters tend to fail under unfavorable conditions of time series data.

Suggested Citation

  • Cayton, Peter Julian & Bersales, Lisa Grace, 2012. "Median-based seasonal adjustment in the presence of seasonal volatility," MPRA Paper 37146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37146
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clive W. J. Granger, 1979. "Seasonality: Causation, Interpretation, and Implications," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 33-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 2002. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 98-127, January.
    3. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, July.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Eric Ghysels & Clive W.J. Granger & Pierre L. Siklos, 1997. "Seasonal Adjustment and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-39, CIRANO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tukey Median Smoothing; Unstable Seasonality; Seasonal Filtering; Census X-11-ARIMA; Robust Filtering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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