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An investigation of granger causality between tax revenues and government expenditures

Author

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  • Hasan, Syed Akif
  • Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz
  • Osman, Ms. Amber

Abstract

The nexus between government revenue and government expenditure always wins the attention of policy makers and think tanks while they work four making fiscal policies for an economy. This paper is an empirical investigation on the unidirectional causality between government expenditures and the revenues, which government collects from public in shape of various levied taxes. Annual data for Pakistan from the period of 1979 to 2010 for governmental expenditures and its tax revenue have been collected. While, the unidirectional and bidirectional causality were interrogated via applying Granger causality for the outlined variables. The results indicate that there is an uni-directional causality between the expenditures and revenues, which runs from tax revenues to govt. expenditures, that is the previous lags of tax revenue has a causal impact on the current govt. spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan, Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2011. "An investigation of granger causality between tax revenues and government expenditures," MPRA Paper 35686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35686
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1996. "An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 89(3-4), pages 363-374, December.
    2. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1990. "Taxing choices in deficit reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 556, The World Bank.
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    5. Roshaiza Taha & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2008. "Causality Between Tax Revenue And Government Spending In Malaysia," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(2), pages 63-73.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2006. "Government revenue and government expenditure nexus: evidence from developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 285-291.
    7. Bassam AbuAl-Foul & Hamid Baghestani, 2004. "The causal relation between government revenue and spending: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 260-269, June.
    8. Neelesh Gounder & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Arti Prasad, 2007. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between government revenue and expenditure," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 147-158, February.
    9. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1979. "Approaches To the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth," Public Finance Review, , vol. 7(1), pages 3-23, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taner TURAN & Mesut KARAKAŞ, 2018. "The Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: Nonlinear Bounds Testing Approach (NARDL)," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    2. Felix Kimtai Kiminyei, 2019. "Empirical Investigation on the Relationship among Kenyan Public Debt, Tax Revenue and Government Expenditure," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(1), pages 142-159, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax revenue; government expenditure; fiscal policy; granger causality; economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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