IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/3267.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exploring the causal relationship among social, real, monetary and infrastructure development in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Iqbal, Javed
  • Nadeem, Khurram

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship among composite indicators for real, monetary/financial, social and infrastructure development in Pakistan. This is an effort to provide evidence on the two highly debatable issues, i.e. money-real causality and social-economic causality in a single multivariate framework. We use a large number of variables to construct the composite indicators of development in four major sectors of the economy: social development, real economic development, monetary and financial growth and infrastructure development. The data are collected from 1971-72 to 2003-04 on annual basis. The technique of factor analysis using principal component is employed to construct these indicators. The computed values of these indicators over the aforementioned time span constitute time series data. Using these time series data the paper assesses that a long-run relationship exists among social, real, monetary and infrastructure activities. The paper has applied Granger Causality test in a Vector Error Correction model and concludes that social development is caused by real economic development but not vice versa, which is indicative of ‘trickle-down’ development policies. It also concludes that in the context of Pakistan, no causal relationship exists between real economic development and monetary growth; meaning that monetary development has no impact on the economic growth of the country. However, both real development and monetary indicators appear to be exogenous in the system which implies that these can be used as instrument in developing social and physical infrastructure to boost investment and improving the quality of life of the people.

Suggested Citation

  • Iqbal, Javed & Nadeem, Khurram, 2006. "Exploring the causal relationship among social, real, monetary and infrastructure development in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 3267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3267/1/MPRA_paper_3267.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    3. Colombatto, Enrico, 1991. "A comment on economic growth and social development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1441-1444, October.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 2005. "An empirical investigation among real, monetary and financial variables," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 3, pages 13-20, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    8. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    9. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    10. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Neville R. Norman & John H. Hall, 2014. "The dynamics of banking sector and stock market maturity and the performance of Asian economies," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 16-44, May.
    2. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    3. P.K. Mishra (b), S.K. Mishra (b) and M.K. Sarangi (b), 2020. "Social Sector Development and Economic Growth in India, 1990-1991 to 2017-2018," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 49-68, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    2. Aristeidis G. Samitas & Dimitris F. Kenourgios, 2007. "Macroeconomic factors' influence on 'new' European countries' stock returns: the case of four transition economies," International Journal of Financial Services Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 34-49.
    3. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    4. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    6. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Haruna Issahaku & Yazidu Uztarz & Paul Bata Domanban, 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Ghana: Any Causal Link?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(8), pages 1044-1062, August.
    8. Osman Karamustafa & Yakup Kucukkale, 2003. "Long Run Relationships between Stock Market Returns and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Turkey," Finance 0309010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Puah, Chin-Hong & Jayaraman, T. K., 2007. "Dynamic linkage between Macroeconomic Activities and Stock Prices in Fiji," MPRA Paper 37671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Unit roots and long-run causality: investigating the relationship between output, money and interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-112, January.
    13. Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur & Metin, Kivilcim, 1996. "Efficiency of the Turkish Stock Exchange with respect to monetary variables: A cointegration analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 566-576, May.
    14. Chee Loong, Lee & Chun Hao, Laiu & Nur Hidayah, Ramli & Nur Sabrina, Mohd Palel, 2018. "Dynamic Interactions in Macroeconomic Activities," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1651-1672.
    15. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    17. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Financial Deregulation and the Relationship Between the Economy and the Share Market in Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    18. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables play any role in the stock market movement in Ghana?," MPRA Paper 9357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    19. Cifter Atilla & Ozun Alper, 2008. "Estimating the Effects of Interest Rates on Share Prices in Turkey Using a Multi-Scale Causality Test," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 68-79, April.
    20. K. Latha & Sunita Gupta & Arnav Kumar, 2016. "Relationship between Indian Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Financial Markets, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 109-121.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; Multivariate; Principal Component; Composite Indicators; Social; Real; Monetary; Infrastructure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.