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Expectations, employment and prices: a suggested interpretation of the new 'farmerian' economics

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  • Guerrazzi, Marco

Abstract

This paper aims at providing a critical assessment of the new ‘Farmerian’ economics, i.e. the recent Farmer’s attempt to provide a new micro-foundation of the General Theory grounded on modern search and business cycle theories. Specifically, I develop a theoretical model that summarizes the main arguments of the suggested approach by showing that a special importance has to be attached to the search mechanism, the choice of units and ‘animal spirits’ modelling. Thereafter, referring to self-made real-business-cycle experiments, I discuss the main empirical implications of the resulting framework. Finally, I consider its policy implications by stressing the problematic nature of demand management interventions and the advisability of extending the role of the central bank in preventing financial bubbles and crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrazzi, Marco, 2010. "Expectations, employment and prices: a suggested interpretation of the new 'farmerian' economics," MPRA Paper 30832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30832
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    3. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 8100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    8. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Stochastic Dynamics and Matching in the Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale for the Shimer's Puzzle," Discussion Papers 2010/95, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
    10. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
    11. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2012. "Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 155-172, March.
    12. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    13. Moen, Espen R, 1997. "Competitive Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 385-411, April.
    14. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    15. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
    16. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2008. "Old-Keynesian Economics," Chapters, in: Roger E.A. Farmer (ed.), Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    18. Barnichon, Regis, 2007. "The Shimer puzzle and the correct identification of productivity shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19691, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    20. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
    21. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    22. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    23. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901.
    24. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Guerrazzi & Paolo Gelain, 2015. "A demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations: the new 'Farmerian' framework under scrutiny," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 81-104, January.
    2. Marco Guerrazzi, 2015. "Animal spirits, investment and unemployment: An old Keynesian view of the Great Recession," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 16(3), pages 343-358.
    3. Marco Guerrazzi, 2023. "The Keynesian nexus between the market for goods and the labour market," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 70(2), pages 195-216, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Old Keynesian Economics; search; demand constrained equilibrium; Shimer puzzle; economic policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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