IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/27750.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial crisis: The incrediable hulk in Indian economic growth and external sector

Author

Listed:
  • Bera, Soumitra Kumar

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the impact of current world-wide recession on India’s growth. The data for this study were compiled from RBI and Central Statistical Organisation (CSO). The paper has applied regression technique with GDP as dependent variable, while exports, imports, FDI and FII were taken as independent variables. Prior to regression analysis, all the variables are tested for stationarity, applying Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The data sets were also tested for seasonality by applying auxiliary regression. Because of the problem of multicolinearity among the independent variables, three models, dropping one of the highly collinear variables, were estimated. The results suggest that financial crisis has adversely impacted India’s GDP although imports, exports and FDI were found to have exercised stimulating influence through technological spillovers and other externalities. The paper suggests that recovery of global economy is extremely important for Indian economic growth although the effects of global slow down could be minimized through the use of stimulant fiscal and monetary measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Bera, Soumitra Kumar, 2010. "Financial crisis: The incrediable hulk in Indian economic growth and external sector," MPRA Paper 27750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27750
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27750/1/MPRA_paper_27750.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. de Mello, Luiz R, Jr, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 133-151, January.
    3. Magnus Blomström & Ari Kokko & Mario Zejan, 2000. "Multinational Corporations and Spillovers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 8, pages 101-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-688, November.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    7. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    8. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    9. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
    10. S. Mahendra Dev, 2008. "India," Chapters, in: Anis Chowdhury & Wahiduddin Mahmud (ed.), Handbook on the South Asian Economies, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:2:p:153-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    15. repec:bla:econom:v:41:y:1974:i:162:p:176-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Steven Globerman, 1979. "Foreign Direct Investment and `Spillover' Efficiency Benefits in Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 42-56, February.
    17. Bende-Nabende, A. & Ford, J.L. & Sen, S. & Slater, J., 2000. "Long-Run Dynamics of FDI and its Spillovers Onto Output: Evidence From the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Region," Discussion Papers 00-10, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    18. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    19. Durham, J.B.J. Benson, 2004. "Absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 285-306, April.
    20. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:3:p:247-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Usha Nair‐Reichert & Diana Weinhold, 2001. "Causality Tests for Cross‐Country Panels: a New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-171, May.
    22. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Belloumi, Mounir, 2014. "The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 269-287.
    2. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia — Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 4, pages 81-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Arshia Amiri & Ulf-G Gerdtham, 2012. "Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 43-59, May.
    4. Elvira Sapienza, 2009. "FDI and Growth in Central and Southern Eastern Europe," Quaderni DSEMS 12-2009, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    5. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    6. Latif Khalilov & Chae-Deug Yi, 2020. "Is Foreign Direct Investment a Real Driving Force of Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(3), pages 273-299, September.
    7. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:18, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    8. Akinlo, A. Enisan, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 627-639, July.
    9. AM.Priyangani Adikari & Haiyun Liu & MMSA. Marasinghe, 2021. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment-Induced Technological Innovation in Sri Lanka? Empirical Evidence Using ARDL Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd & Smeets, Roger & Zwinkels, Remco, 2008. "The impact of horizontal and vertical FDI on host's country economic growth," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 452-472, August.
    11. Johnson, Andreas, 2006. "The Effects of FDI Inflows on Host Country Economic Growth," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 58, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    12. Shima'a Hanafy & Marcus Marktanner, 2015. "Sectoral FDI, Absorptive Capacity and Economic Growth — Empirical Evidence from Egyptian Governorates," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201537, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Awolusi D. Olawumi, 2019. "Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in BRICS Countries: Controlling for Country Differences," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17.
    14. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    16. Chee-Keong Choong, 2012. "Does domestic financial development enhance the linkages between foreign direct investment and economic growth?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 819-834, June.
    17. Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
    18. Sam Hobbs & Dimitrios Paparas & Mostafa E. AboElsoud, 2021. "Does Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from Albania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    19. B. Seetanah, 2009. "Is Foreign Direct Investment Growth Conducive? New Evidences From Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1980-2005," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    20. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Das, 2021. "Differential Growth Impact of FDI on LICs, LMICs, and ECs: The Role of Absorptive Capabilities," IEG Working Papers 447, Institute of Economic Growth.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The impact on the world economy; Impact on Indian Economy; Impact on External Sector; Data Sources and Methodology; Regression Analysis: Discussion and Interpretation; Seasonality test; Regression Results and discussion; Conclusions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Recognized plagiarism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.