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Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic - Granger approach

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  • Pomenkova, Jitka
  • Kapounek, Svatopluk

Abstract

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the aggregate price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule“ concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged value of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

Suggested Citation

  • Pomenkova, Jitka & Kapounek, Svatopluk, 2009. "Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic - Granger approach," MPRA Paper 27390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27390
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2011. "Monetary policy implementation and money demand instability during the financial crisis," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 177-186.
    2. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Implementation in the Eurozone - the Concept of Endogenous Money," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2011-12, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exogenous and endogenous money; transmission mechanism; Taylor rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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