IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26082.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for nonlinear causation between capital inflows and domestic prices

Author

Listed:
  • Rashid, Abdul

Abstract

The nonlinear cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied in a bi-variate framework to investigate the effects of capital inflows, monetary expansion and interest rates on domestic price levels. The key message of the analysis is that there is a significant inflationary impact of capital inflows, money supply-to-GDP ratio and domestic debt, in particular during period of large capital inflows from 2001 to 2008. Whereas, interest rate and exchange rate do not have any significant nonlinear causal links with domestic price levels during the examined periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Rashid, Abdul, 2010. "Testing for nonlinear causation between capital inflows and domestic prices," MPRA Paper 26082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26082/1/MPRA_paper_26082.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2007. "Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: The case of metal prices and US inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 227-229.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Rangan Gupta, 2007. "Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics: An Open Economy Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 335-360.
    4. Rangan Gupta, 2005. "Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics," Working papers 2005-31, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
    6. Dimitrios Hristu-Varsakelis & Catherine Kyrtsou, 2010. "Testing for Granger Causality in the Presence of Chaotic Dynamics," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 53(2), pages 323-327.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    2. Fernandez, Viviana, 2014. "Linear and non-linear causality between price indices and commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-51.
    3. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Lee Kim, Yea & Wang, Jinghua, 2019. "Who poisons the pool? Time-varying asymmetric and nonlinear causal inference between low-risk and high-risk bonds markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-147.
    4. Wang, Jinghua & Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2020. "Does Bitcoin still own the dominant power? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    6. Hany Fahmy, 2014. "Modelling nonlinearities in commodity prices using smooth transition regression models with exogenous transition variables," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(4), pages 577-600, November.
    7. Jinghua Wang & Geoffrey Ngene, 2018. "Symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear causalities between oil prices and the U.S. economic sectors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 199-218, July.
    8. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2010. "Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 325-345, April.
    9. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & El Montasser, Ghassen & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Testing the relationships between energy consumption and income in G7 countries with nonlinear causality tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 126-133.
    10. Xu Zhang & Xiaoxing Liu & Jianqin Hang & Dengbao Yao, 2018. "The dynamic causality between commodity prices, inflation and output in China: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 407-425, January.
    11. Ousama Ben-Salha & Abir Abid & Ghassen El Montasser, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1194-1226, June.
    12. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Tayachi, Tahar, 2021. "Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-85.
    13. Rachida Hennani, 2015. "Can the Lasota(1977)’s model compete with the Mackey-Glass(1977)’s model in nonlinear modelling of financial time series?," Working Papers 15-09, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jun 2015.
    14. Karagianni Stella & Kyrtsou Catherine, 2011. "Analysing the Dynamics between U.S. Inflation and Dow Jones Index Using Non-Linear Methods," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, March.
    15. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Does internet search interest for gold move the gold spot, stock and exchange rate markets? A study from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 501-507.
    16. Namahoro, Jean Pierre & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hui, Su, 2023. "Asymmetric linkage between copper-cobalt productions and economic growth: Evidence from Republic Democratic of Congo," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Kyrtsou, Catherine, 2008. "Re-examining the sources of heteroskedasticity: The paradigm of noisy chaotic models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6785-6789.
    18. D. Hristu-Varsakelis & C. Kyrtsou, 2008. "Evidence for Nonlinear Asymmetric Causality in US Inflation, Metal, and Stock Returns," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2008, pages 1-7, May.
    19. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers among global oil shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and inflation expectation uncertainty under extreme shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Vorlow, Costas, 2009. "Modelling non-linear comovements between time series," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 200-211, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Inflows; Inflationary Pressures; Monetary Expansion; Nonlinear Dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.