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Modelling non-linear comovements between time series

Author

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  • Catherine Kyrtsou

    (University of Macedonia, Department of Economics)

  • Costas Vorlow

    (Durham Business School)

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to employ a new dynamic model that combines the bivariate noisy Mackey–Glass recently proposed by Kyrtsou and Labys [Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W., 2006. Evi- dence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices. Journal of Macroeco- nomics 28(1), 256–266; Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W., 2007. Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: the case of metal prices and US inflation. Physica A 377(1), 227–229.] and the BEKK Garch processes. An empirical exercise using the US effective Federal fund rates and 3-month T-Bill rates will show that for specific time periods the comovements between series are due to inherent non-linear deterministic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Kyrtsou & Costas Vorlow, 2008. "Modelling non-linear comovements between time series," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008_01, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dur:durham:2008_01
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    1. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2007. "Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: The case of metal prices and US inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 227-229.
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    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    13. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G., 2009. "The impact of information signals on market prices when agents have non-linear trading rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 167-176, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. David, S.A. & Inácio, C.M.C. & Quintino, D.D. & Machado, J.A.T., 2020. "Measuring the Brazilian ethanol and gasoline market efficiency using DFA-Hurst and fractal dimension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Afshan, Sahar & Sharif, Arshian & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Jammazi, Rania, 2018. "Time–frequency causality between stock prices and exchange rates: Further evidences from cointegration and wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 225-244.
    4. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    5. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    6. Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng & Wai-Mun Chia, 2013. "Asymmetric returns, gradual bubbles and sudden crashes," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 420-437, May.
    7. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Mikropoulou, Christina & Papana, Angeliki, 2016. "Does the S&P500 index lead the crude oil dynamics? A complexity-based approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 239-246.
    8. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2010. "Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 325-345, April.
    9. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2015. "Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 62-86.
    10. Rachida Hennani, 2015. "Can the Lasota(1977)’s model compete with the Mackey-Glass(1977)’s model in nonlinear modelling of financial time series?," Working Papers 15-09, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jun 2015.
    11. Sharif, Arshian & Jammazi, Rania & Raza, Syed Ali & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2017. "Electricity and growth nexus dynamics in Singapore : Fresh insights based on wavelet approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 686-692.
    12. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Hkiri, Besma & Aloui, Chaker, 2018. "Sectoral energy consumption by source and output in the U.S.: New evidence from wavelet-based approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 75-96.
    13. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2015. "Environment degradation, economic growth and energy consumption nexus: A wavelet-windowed cross correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 110-125.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BEKK Garch and Mackey–Glass processes; Structural changes; Comovements; Interest rates; Non-linear dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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