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Determinants of timber exports in Nigeria: an error correction modeling approach

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  • Yusuf, Adesina Sulaiman
  • Edom, Cyprian .O

Abstract

This study analyzed the factors influencing the exports of timber in Nigeria with the aid of Error Correction Model (ECM) representation procedures. The analysis was carried out with the data collected on roundwood and sawnwood over 33 years (1970 – 2003) using the long run restricted ECM. The statistical significance of the ECM terms for roundwood (-1.110) and sawnwood (-1.772) validates the existence of relationship among the variables. This suggests the short run dynamic effect of the changes in export quantities of roundwood are determined by one-year lagged export quantity of roundwood & domestic output-consumption ratio of roundwood, domestic output-consumption ratio of roundwood and domestic-international price ratio of roundwood, while that of sawnwood is determined by lagged values of the official exchange rate, domestic consumption-output, domestic consumption-output and world export-output ratios of the sawnwood. Efforts to boost timber export from Nigeria needs to incorporate policy measures that will improve the quantity and quality of timber products in order to meet the local and foreign demands.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf, Adesina Sulaiman & Edom, Cyprian .O, 2007. "Determinants of timber exports in Nigeria: an error correction modeling approach," MPRA Paper 2608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2608
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2608/1/MPRA_paper_2608.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad, 1989. "Oil Exports, Real Exchange Rate Appreciation, and Demand for Imports in Nigeria," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 495-512, April.
    3. Pollard, Stephen K. & Graham, Douglas H., 1985. "Price policy and agricultural export performance in Jamaica," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 1067-1075, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nanang, David M., 2010. "Analysis of export demand for Ghana's timber products: A multivariate co-integration approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 47-61, January.
    2. Fakhri, Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Non-oil Export: The Case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alley, Ibrahim, 2018. "Oil price and USD-Naira exchange rate crash: Can economic diversification save the Naira?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 245-256.
    4. Jafar, Rana Muhammad Sohail & Rabnawaz, Ambar & Hussain, Safdar & Ahmed, Wasim & Zhuang, Peifen, 2015. "Aptitudes of Pakistani Rice Industry with Respect to Global Trade," MPRA Paper 70378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    6. Paul J.J. Welfens & Tony Irawan, 2014. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: New Theoretical Approach and Empirical Findings for US Exports and European Exports," EIIW Discussion paper disbei204, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Roundwood; Sawnwood; Nigeria; Exports; Co-integration and Error-correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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