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The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation

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  • Goyal, Ashima
  • Dash, Shridhar

Abstract

A new specification is employed to test for the degree of endogeneity of commercial bank credit, and its response to structural variables relevant to the Indian context. Our specification allows us to both identify money supply in a single equation, and disentangle the contribution of the Central and the Commercial Banks to the money supply process. Bank credit reacted more to financial variables and had dissimilar responses to food and manufacturing prices and output. Instead of interest rates, sectoral returns played a major role. Monetary policy broadly succeeded in preventing an explosive growth in money supply and reined in inflationary expectations. But by targeting manufacturing prices it harmed real output. The estimated structure implies that it would be more efficient to target agricultural prices for inflation control. A monetary contraction should be completed earlier than in the past, and should coincide with a rise in food prices. Information available in the systematic structural features can be exploited in designing monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Ashima & Dash, Shridhar, 2000. "The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation," MPRA Paper 24632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24632
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Competing Views Of The Money Supply Process: Theory And Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 67-88, February.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-844, December.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 1994. "Industrial Pricing and Growth Fluctuations in India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 13-32, January.
    6. Goyal, Ashima, 1994. "Growth dynamics in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model for India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 265-289, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "History of Monetary Policy in India Since Independence," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-81-322-1961-3, June.
    2. Das, Rituparna, 2010. "Econometric Models of Forecasting Money Supply in India," MPRA Paper 21392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Das, Rituparna, 2010. "An Outline of the Existing Literature on Monetary Economics in India," MPRA Paper 22825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "The Natural Interest Rate In Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Bhaskar Dutta & Tridip Ray & E Somanathan (ed.), New And Enduring Themes In Development Economics, chapter 15, pages 333-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Goyal, Ashima, 2006. "Macroeconomic policy and the exchange rate: working together?," MPRA Paper 27768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ho Dong Ching, 2011. "Endogenous Money - A Structural Model of Monetary Base," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ52.
    7. Das, Rituparna, 2009. "Endogenous Money, Output and Prices in India," MPRA Paper 14252, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money supply endogeneity; identification; information; sectoral prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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