IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/24632.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Goyal, Ashima
  • Dash, Shridhar

Abstract

A new specification is employed to test for the degree of endogeneity of commercial bank credit, and its response to structural variables relevant to the Indian context. Our specification allows us to both identify money supply in a single equation, and disentangle the contribution of the Central and the Commercial Banks to the money supply process. Bank credit reacted more to financial variables and had dissimilar responses to food and manufacturing prices and output. Instead of interest rates, sectoral returns played a major role. Monetary policy broadly succeeded in preventing an explosive growth in money supply and reined in inflationary expectations. But by targeting manufacturing prices it harmed real output. The estimated structure implies that it would be more efficient to target agricultural prices for inflation control. A monetary contraction should be completed earlier than in the past, and should coincide with a rise in food prices. Information available in the systematic structural features can be exploited in designing monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Ashima & Dash, Shridhar, 2000. "The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation," MPRA Paper 24632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24632
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24632/1/MPRA_paper_24632.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Competing Views Of The Money Supply Process: Theory And Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 67-88, February.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-844, December.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 1994. "Industrial Pricing and Growth Fluctuations in India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 13-32, January.
    6. Goyal, Ashima, 1994. "Growth dynamics in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model for India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 265-289, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "History of Monetary Policy in India Since Independence," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-81-322-1961-3, June.
    2. Das, Rituparna, 2010. "Econometric Models of Forecasting Money Supply in India," MPRA Paper 21392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Das, Rituparna, 2010. "An Outline of the Existing Literature on Monetary Economics in India," MPRA Paper 22825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "The Natural Interest Rate In Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Bhaskar Dutta & Tridip Ray & E Somanathan (ed.), New And Enduring Themes In Development Economics, chapter 15, pages 333-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Goyal, Ashima, 2006. "Macroeconomic policy and the exchange rate: working together?," MPRA Paper 27768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ho Dong Ching, 2011. "Endogenous Money - A Structural Model of Monetary Base," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ52, April.
    7. Das, Rituparna, 2009. "Endogenous Money, Output and Prices in India," MPRA Paper 14252, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghosh, sudeshna, 2017. "Education Attainment Forecasting and Economic Inequality United States," MPRA Paper 89712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Alexandros Gabrielsen & Lee Smales, 2016. "(Unusual) weather and stock returns—I am not in the mood for mood: further evidence from international markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(1), pages 63-94, February.
    3. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    4. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp982 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ibrahim, M.H, 2004. "A VAR Analysis of US and Japanese Effects on Malaysian Aggregate and Sectoral Output," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 5-28.
    6. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    8. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
    9. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    10. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201403, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    12. Kyriaki G. Louka & Nektarios A. Michail, 2024. "Oil prices and the euro exchange rate," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 969-983, October.
    13. Sajjad F. Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Alireza Naghavi, 2016. "Political institutions and government spending behavior: theory and evidence from Iran," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 522-549, June.
    14. Yash P. Mehra, 1995. "Some key empirical determinants of short-term nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 33-51.
    15. Sunil S. Poshakwale & Chandra Thapa, 2010. "Foreign Investors and Global Integration of Emerging Indian Equity Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
    16. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    17. Wilkinson, Katherine J. & Young, Martin R. & Young, Shirley, 2001. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates: Evidence from New Zealand and Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 427-455, August.
    18. Geraint Johnes, 2000. "Up Around the Bend: Linear and nonlinear models of the UK economy compared," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 485-493.
    19. Boucekkine, R. & Laksaci, M. & Touati-Tliba, M., 2021. "Long-run stability of money demand and monetary policy: The case of Algeria," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Man-Keun Kim & Kangil Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Interactions between Carbon and Energy Prices in the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 494-501.
    22. Sayef Bakari & Nissar Fakraoui & Sofien Tiba, 2021. "Domestic Investment, Export, Import And Economic Growth In Brazil: An Application Of Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 6(1), pages 31-48, Mars.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money supply endogeneity; identification; information; sectoral prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24632. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.