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Dynamic Financial Linkages of Japan and ASEAN Economies: An Application of Real Interest Parity

Author

Listed:
  • Chan, Tze-Haw
  • Khong, Wye Leong Roy
  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi

Abstract

To examine the validity of real interest parity (RIP), this study provides empirical evidences concerning the dynamic linkages of real interest rates among ASEAN-5 and the mean reversion behaviors of real interest differentials of ASEAN-5.vis-à-vis Japan during the post liberalization era (1984-1997). The upshots of our findings are four-fold. First, there were co-movement of ASEAN real rates in the long run and dynamic causalities in the short run, which explicitly indicated a monetary inter-dependency among the ASEAN tigers. Second, most of the forecast error variance of real interest rates in own country can be attributed to other ASEAN-4’s innovations (more than 50%), which partly explain the contagion effects during Asia crisis 1997/98. Third, the real interest differentials are mean reverting over time, implying that RIP holds between Japan and ASEANs (except Singapore). Forth, the half-lives are reported at approximately 6 to 11 months, which reflect the considerably small deviations from RIP. All together, the findings constitute towards regional financial integration with the Japan’s leading role being confirmed. To great extent, this would support the recent proposal of Currency Union with Japanese Yen taken as common currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan, Tze-Haw & Khong, Wye Leong Roy & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2003. "Dynamic Financial Linkages of Japan and ASEAN Economies: An Application of Real Interest Parity," MPRA Paper 2209, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2209
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    Cited by:

    1. Chan Tze-Haw & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2007. "Real Financial Integration among the East Asian Economies: A SURADF Panel Approach," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 15(1&2), pages 53-71.
    2. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    3. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009.
    4. Razak, Najwa & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The relationship between exchange rate and trade balance: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 112447, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest linkages; real interest differentials; cointegration; mean reversion; half-life; financial integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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