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Does currency substitution affect exchange rate uncertainty? the case of Turkey

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  • Levent, Korap

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate whether the currency substitution can affect the exchange rate uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Considering the whole time period 1987M01-2006M12 as well as thesub-periods 1987M01-1999M12 and 2001M03-2006M12 for sensitivity analysis, our estimation results employing contemporaneous exponential GARCH (EGARCH) methodology of Nelson (1991) indicate that currency substitution leads to the exchange rate uncertainty. Besides, conditional variance reacts more to past positive shocks than to negative innovations of equal size.

Suggested Citation

  • Levent, Korap, 2007. "Does currency substitution affect exchange rate uncertainty? the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 20319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    3. Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank.
    4. Alberto Giovannini & Bart Turtelboom, 1992. "Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 4232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    6. Akcay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Karasulu, Meral, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate instability: The Turkish case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 827-835, April.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Faruk Seļuk, 1997. "GMM estimation of currency substitution in a high-inflation economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 225-227.
    10. Ilker Domac & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2002. "between Dollarization and Inflation : Evidence from Turkey," Discussion Papers 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1995. "High inflation rates and the long-run money demand function: Evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 77-91.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hisao Kumamoto & Masao Kumamoto, 2014. "Does Currency Substitution Affect Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 698-704.
    2. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-01 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate ; dollarization ; currency substitution ; inflation ; exponential GARCH models ; conditional variance ; leverage effect ; Turkish economy ;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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