IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/19781.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Great Depression Theories Explain the Great Recession?

Author

Listed:
  • Schlenkhoff, Georg

Abstract

The recent recession has brought a sharp decrease in income, output, and world trade, as well as an increase in unemployment in developed and underdeveloped countries. Experts such as Paul Krugman, Christina Romer, or Barry Eichengreen, compare the current situation with the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, the current debate is whether that comparison is even applicable. Since policy makers have to understand the roots and the dimension of the crisis in order to seize the fiscal stimulus package, adjust the level of taxes, and change regulation of the financial sector, the debate is of course a reasonable one to have. The Great Depression is the archetype of a recession, so it provides policy makers with valuable insights into right and wrong reaction methods. However, if policy makers orientate at the Great Depression, they have to make sure that the roots of the crisis are similar. So this paper addresses the question: Is the current financial crisis similar to the Great Depression? For that purpose I will systematically compare the Great Recession with the Great Depression. First, by examining the theories that commonly explain the Great Depression. Subsequently I will apply these theories to the Great Recession and discuss if they are applicable. I will argue that some theories are still applicable. For example, which flaws in the monetary system contributed to the Great Recession as well as to the Great Depression? However, the economic environment has changed and applying the same policy reactions today as in the Great Depression will be a policy error. Finally I will briefly present policy recommendations that are based on the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlenkhoff, Georg, 2009. "Can Great Depression Theories Explain the Great Recession?," MPRA Paper 19781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19781
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19781/1/MPRA_paper_19781.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King, Gary & Rosen, Ori & Tanner, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F., 2008. "Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 951-996, December.
    2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen, 2008. "Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly," MPRA Paper 11864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Kobrak & Mira Wilkins, 2011. "The '2008 Crisis' in an economic history perspective: Looking at the twentieth century," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 175-192.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    2. Im, Hyun Joong & Kang, Ya & Shon, Janghoon, 2020. "How does uncertainty influence target capital structure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    4. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Joao Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2013. "The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Labour Market Flexibility?," CEP Reports 31, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Stulz, René M., 2016. "Why does idiosyncratic risk increase with market risk?," CFS Working Paper Series 533, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Knut Are Aastveit & Gisle James Natvik & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Working Paper 2013/17, Norges Bank.
    8. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler & Friedrich Sindermann, 2017. "Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 682-711, October.
    9. Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Troster Victor & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
    10. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    11. Mario Alloza, 2014. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?," Discussion Papers 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Oct 2016.
    12. Mishkin, F.S., 1998. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Papers 648, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    13. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    14. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    15. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    16. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    17. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    18. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    19. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    20. Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A., 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Depression; Great Recession; Crisis; Bretton Woods II; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • B0 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General
    • A23 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Graduate
    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • A2 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • B15 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary
    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • B12 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Classical (includes Adam Smith)
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • B13 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian)
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19781. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.