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Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience

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  • Levent, Korap

Abstract

This study constructs an empirical model of the volatility of the TL/US$ exchange rate for the Turkish economy during the post-2001 crisis period ending on August 2006. Employing the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) estimation methodology of econometrics, we find that the volatility of a given shock to the exchange rate is highly persistent and the successive forecasts of the conditional variance converge to the steady state quite slowly. In addition, the conditional variance of the exchange rate reacts differently to a given negative shock than to a positive shock with equal magnitude. The plot of the News Impact Curve indicates that a foreign investor would face a higher uncertainty when there is an unanticipated increase in the exchange rate when compared to an unanticipated decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • Levent, Korap, 2007. "Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience," MPRA Paper 19598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19598
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Simatele, Munacinga C H, 2004. "Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia," MPRA Paper 21575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling," MPRA Paper 19631, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Volatility ; News Impact ; Turkish Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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