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Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions

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  • Harin, Alexander

Abstract

The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the dimensions of ruptures can be more than 1/3 of the standard deviation for the standard probability distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Harin, Alexander, 2009. "Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions," MPRA Paper 19348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19348
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19348/1/MPRA_paper_19348.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harin, Alexander, 2010. "Теорема О Существовании Разрывов В Шкале Вероятностей [Theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale]," MPRA Paper 20593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "Is data interpretation in utility and prospect theories unquestionably correct?," MPRA Paper 53880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Harin, Alexander, 2015. "Is Prelec’s function discontinuous at p = 1? (for the Einhorn Award of SJDM)," MPRA Paper 64672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "General correcting formulae for forecasts," MPRA Paper 55283, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability; uncertainty; utility; economics; decisions; risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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