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Construction industry forecasting model

Author

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  • Skribans, Valerijs

Abstract

In economic literature are shown different methods and instruments of forecasting of separated factors. The most exactly from them take into account economic relations in investigation object. The paper presents the results of research conducted on forecasting in the construction industry. Development of a model for the construction industry is a complicated task. The paper offers a model for forecasting production volumes of the construction industry in Latvian conditions. The construction brunch consists of the extraction, treat (building material), builders and construction customer models. Component parts of the models reflect main factors of production (entrepreneural activity): natural factor (availability of resources), fixed capital (availability of production means), labor factor, working capital (availability of money resources), enterprising factor (entrepreneural spirit and availability of information). The main idea of the paper is that the suggested economic (econometric) model can produce a more accurately forecast than any other statistical, mathematical, and analytical forecasting approaches. The key of the model is theoretical dynamic simulation used for a real-life economic situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Skribans, Valerijs, 2002. "Construction industry forecasting model," MPRA Paper 16365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16365
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Būvniecības nozares prognozēšanas modelis [Construction branch forecasting model]," MPRA Paper 20393, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    2. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Construction industry forecasting system dynamic model," MPRA Paper 27323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares uzņēmumu finansiālās stabilitātes novērtēšana [Estimation of the financial stability of the Latvian building industry enterprises]," MPRA Paper 27095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Skribans, Valerijs, 2003. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares attīstības prognoze [Latvian construction brunch development forecast]," MPRA Paper 26072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Latvijas būvniecības industrijas resursu problēmas vienotā Eiropā [Latvian building industry resources problems in European Union]," MPRA Paper 20392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Skribans, V. & Počs, R., 2008. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares attīstības prognozēšanas modelis [Latvian construction branch development forecasting model]," MPRA Paper 16355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Модель Жилищного Строительства В Постсоциалистических Странах На Примере Латвии [Housing model in the post socialistic countries on the example of Latvia]," MPRA Paper 22229, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    development; business; construction economy; dynamic simulation; econometric model; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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