IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14352.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Factors Driving Demand and Default Risk in Residential Housing Loans: Indian Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bandyopadhyay, Arindam
  • Saha, Asish

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the functional role of various micro and macro economic as well as situational factors that determine residential housing demand and risk of borrower default. Using 13,487 housing loan account sanctioned from 1993-2007) data from Housing Finance Institutions (HFIs) in India, we investigate the crucial factors that drive demand for housing and its correlation with borrower characteristics. Next, we examine housing loan defaults and the major causative factors of the same. Our empirical results suggest that borrower defaults on housing loan payments is mainly driven by change in market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount and EMI to income ratio. A 10 percent decrease in the market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount raises the odds of default by 1.55 percent. Similarly, a 10 percent increase in EMI to income ratio raises the delinquency chance by 4.50 percent. However, one cannot ignore borrower characteristicslike marital status, employment situation, regional locations, city locations, age profile and house preference which otherwise may inhibit lender to properly assess credit risk in home loan business as our results show that these parameters also act as default triggers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bandyopadhyay, Arindam & Saha, Asish, 2009. "Factors Driving Demand and Default Risk in Residential Housing Loans: Indian Evidence," MPRA Paper 14352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14352/1/MPRA_paper_14352.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "Estimating Housing Demand With an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 20-33, January.
    2. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
    3. Brown, James N & Rosen, Harvey S, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 765-768, May.
    4. George M. von Furstenberg & R. Jeffrey Green, 1974. "Estimation of Delinquency Risk for Home Mortgage Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 5-19, March.
    5. Bartik, Timothy J, 1987. "Estimating Hedonic Demand Parameters with Single Market Data: The Problems Caused by Unobserved Tastes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 178-180, February.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
    7. Paul S. Calem & Susan M. Wachter, 1999. "Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable‐Home‐Loan Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 105-134, March.
    8. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    9. Luci Ellis, 2010. "The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
    10. Epple, Dennis, 1987. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Demand and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 59-80, February.
    11. Peter Chinloy, 1995. "Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neva Sunba Dena & Suhel & Imam Asngari, 2021. "The Factors Affecting Islamic Financing for Homeownership," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 3, pages 48-54, September.
    2. Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Muhammad Rizwan & Ismail Senturk, 2022. "The Impact Of Intangible Assets And Firm-Specific Factors On Cash Flows: An Empirical Analysis Of Public Firms Listed On The Pakistan Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(3), pages 16-26.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bandyopadhyay, Arindam & Kuvalekar, S V & Basu, Sanjay & Baid, Shilpa & Saha, Asish, 2008. "A Study of Residential Housing Demand in India," MPRA Paper 9339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cheshire, Paul & Sheppard, Stephen, 2002. "The welfare economics of land use planning," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 242-269, September.
    3. Henrik Andersson, 2008. "Willingness to Pay for Car Safety: Evidence from Sweden," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(4), pages 579-594, December.
    4. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.
    5. John I. Carruthers & David E. Clark, 2010. "Valuing Environmental Quality: A Space‐Based Strategy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 801-832, October.
    6. Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2004. "The demand for housing services," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 16-35, March.
    7. Lars Nesheim, 2004. "Equilibrium Sorting of Heterogeneous Consumers Across Locations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 337, Econometric Society.
    8. John Yinger, 2009. "Hedonic Markets and Explicit Demands: Bid-Function Envelopes for Public Services, Neighborhood Amenities, and Commuting Costs," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 114, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    9. Lars Nesheim, 2002. "Equilibrium sorting of heterogeneous consumers across locations: theory and empirical implications," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Nicolai V. Kuminoff & V. Kerry Smith & Christopher Timmins, 2010. "The New Economics of Equilibrium Sorting and its Transformational Role for Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 16349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andersen, Laura M. & Smed, Sinne, 2010. "What Is It Consumers Really Want And Why? The Case Of Fat In Milk," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116455, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Lars Nesheim, 2002. "Equilibrium sorting of heterogeneous consumers across locations: theory and empirical implications," CeMMAP working papers 08/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Hammarlund, Cecilia, 2013. "The Big, the Bad and the Average: Hedonic Prices and Inverse Demand for Baltic Cod," Working Papers 2013:34, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    14. C. Lanier Benkard & Patrick Bajari, 2004. "Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," NBER Working Papers 10278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yinger, John, 2015. "Hedonic markets and sorting equilibria: Bid-function envelopes for public services and neighborhood amenities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 9-25.
    16. Laura Andersen & Sinne Smed, 2013. "What is it consumers really want, and how can their preferences be influenced? The case of fat in milk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 323-347, August.
    17. Yaseen Ghulam & Sophie Hill, 2017. "Distinguishing between Good and Bad Subprime Auto Loans Borrowers: The Role of Demographic, Region and Loan Characteristics," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 49-62, November.
    18. Zhang, Congwen & Boyle, Kevin J. & Kuminoff, Nicolai V., 2015. "Partial identification of amenity demand functions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    19. Dror Parnes, 2023. "Typical States and Their Risks for Mortgage Loans," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(2), pages 395-415, June.
    20. Hans Koster & Jos N. van Ommeren & Piet Rietveld, 2010. "Estimating Firms' Demand for Agglomeration," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-087/3, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Demand; Risk Management; Financial Institutions and Banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.