IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14120.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Un método de Cálculo y Temporización de Previsiones Cíclicas para el Sistema Financiero Boliviano
[The calculation and timing of cyclical provisions in the Bolivian financial system]

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzales-Martínez, Rolando
  • Hurtado, Enrique
  • Valdivia, Pedro

Abstract

The constitution of cyclical provisions is related to the effects of latent credit risk in the financial institutions, a risk that materializes during an economic downturn. This study proposes a method both to calculate the amount of cyclical provisions and to estimate the timing of this type of provisions. The calculation is based on the optimization of a partitioned matrix that contains the optimal combinations of percentages of cyclical provisions for each category of risk and for every type of credit. The timing depends upon an indicator that reflects the quality of the credit portfolio in the financial institutions across time.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzales-Martínez, Rolando & Hurtado, Enrique & Valdivia, Pedro, 2008. "Un método de Cálculo y Temporización de Previsiones Cíclicas para el Sistema Financiero Boliviano [The calculation and timing of cyclical provisions in the Bolivian financial system]," MPRA Paper 14120, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14120/1/MPRA_paper_14120.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hildergart Ahumada & Lorena Garegnani, 1999. "Hodrik – Prescott filter in practice," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(4), pages 61-76.
    2. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Working Papers IES 2015/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2015.
    2. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni & Bassanetti, Antonio, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    5. Jaromir Benes & David Vavra, 2004. "Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle," Working Papers 2004/08, Czech National Bank.
    6. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    7. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
    8. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    9. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    10. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 958-969.
    12. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian & Verona, Fabio, 2019. "Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland.
    13. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Palestrini, Antonio, 2019. "DSGE model with financial frictions over subsets of business cycle frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 152-163.
    14. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20507, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    15. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    16. Martínez, Juan Francisco & Oda, Daniel, 2021. "Characterization of the Chilean financial cycle, early warning indicators and implications for macro-prudential policies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    17. Johan Fourie & Willem H. Boshoff, 2008. "Ship traffic and the economy of the Cape Colony: 1652-1793," Working Papers 089, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    18. Richard Ashley & Randal Verbrugge, 2009. "Frequency Dependence in Regression Model Coefficients: An Alternative Approach for Modeling Nonlinear Dynamic Relationships in Time Series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 4-20.
    19. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series 1200, CESifo.
    20. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regulación financiera; previsiones cíclicas; ciclos económicos; riesgo de crédito;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.