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A Fuzzy Pay-off Method for Real Option Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Collan, Mikael
  • Fullér, Robert
  • József, Mezei

Abstract

Real Options analysis offers interesting insights on the value of assets and on the profitability of investments, which has made real options a growing field of academic research and practical application. Real option valuation is, however, often found to be difficult to understand and to implement due to the quite complex mathematics involved. Recent advances in modeling and analysis methods have made real option valuation easier to understand and to implement. This paper presents a new method (fuzzy pay-off method) for real option valuation using fuzzy numbers that is based on findings from earlier real option valuation methods and from fuzzy real option valuation. The method is intuitive to understand and far less complicated than any previous real option valuation model to date. The paper also presents the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers with the method and an application of the new method in an industry setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Collan, Mikael & Fullér, Robert & József, Mezei, 2008. "A Fuzzy Pay-off Method for Real Option Valuation," MPRA Paper 13601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    3. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muzzioli, Silvia & Torricelli, Costanza, 2001. "A Model For Pricing An Option With A Fuzzy Payoff," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(1), pages 49-87, May.
    5. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
    6. Zmeskal, Zdenek, 2001. "Application of the fuzzy-stochastic methodology to appraising the firm value as a European call option," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 303-310, December.
    7. Yoshida, Yuji, 2003. "The valuation of European options in uncertain environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 221-229, February.
    8. Scott Mathews & Vinay Datar & Blake Johnson, 2007. "A Practical Method for Valuing Real Options: The Boeing Approach," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(2), pages 95-104, March.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2011. "Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 116-130, January.
    2. Hassanzadeh, Farhad & Collan, Mikael & Modarres, Mohammad, 2011. "A technical note on "A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model" by Wang and Hwang (2007)," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 464-465, August.
    3. Luukka, Pasi & Collan, Mikael, 2015. "New fuzzy insurance pricing method for giga-investment project insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 22-29.
    4. Voronin D. M., 2016. "On the question of corporate funding implementation of exploration and production investment projects," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(1), pages 126-136.
    5. Sebastian Jaimungal & Yuri Lawryshyn, 2017. "Using managerial revenue and cost estimates to value early stage real option investments," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 259(1), pages 173-190, December.
    6. repec:cor:louvrp:-2393 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. HATAMI-MARBINI, Adel & TAVANA, Madjid & EMROUZNEJAD, Ali & SAATI, Saber, 2012. "Efficiency measurement in fuzzy additive data envelopment analysis," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2393, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Kraemer, Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Using Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Assessing Investments in NGCC and CCS Energy Conversion Technology," FCN Working Papers 3/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Morgan, Horatio M. & Ngwenyama, Ojelanki, 2015. "Real options, learning cost and timing software upgrades: Towards an integrative model for enterprise software upgrade decision analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 211-223.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Option Valuation; Fuzzy Real Options; Fuzzy Numbers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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    1. Opzione (finanza) in Wikipedia Italian

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