IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/13601.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Fuzzy Pay-off Method for Real Option Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Collan, Mikael
  • Fullér, Robert
  • József, Mezei

Abstract

Real Options analysis offers interesting insights on the value of assets and on the profitability of investments, which has made real options a growing field of academic research and practical application. Real option valuation is, however, often found to be difficult to understand and to implement due to the quite complex mathematics involved. Recent advances in modeling and analysis methods have made real option valuation easier to understand and to implement. This paper presents a new method (fuzzy pay-off method) for real option valuation using fuzzy numbers that is based on findings from earlier real option valuation methods and from fuzzy real option valuation. The method is intuitive to understand and far less complicated than any previous real option valuation model to date. The paper also presents the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers with the method and an application of the new method in an industry setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Collan, Mikael & Fullér, Robert & József, Mezei, 2008. "A Fuzzy Pay-off Method for Real Option Valuation," MPRA Paper 13601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13601/2/MPRA_paper_13601.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    3. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muzzioli, Silvia & Torricelli, Costanza, 2001. "A Model For Pricing An Option With A Fuzzy Payoff," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(1), pages 49-87, May.
    5. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
    6. Zmeskal, Zdenek, 2001. "Application of the fuzzy-stochastic methodology to appraising the firm value as a European call option," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 303-310, December.
    7. Yoshida, Yuji, 2003. "The valuation of European options in uncertain environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 221-229, February.
    8. Scott Mathews & Vinay Datar & Blake Johnson, 2007. "A Practical Method for Valuing Real Options: The Boeing Approach," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(2), pages 95-104, March.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2011. "Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 116-130, January.
    2. Hassanzadeh, Farhad & Collan, Mikael & Modarres, Mohammad, 2011. "A technical note on "A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model" by Wang and Hwang (2007)," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 464-465, August.
    3. Luukka, Pasi & Collan, Mikael, 2015. "New fuzzy insurance pricing method for giga-investment project insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 22-29.
    4. Voronin D. M., 2016. "On the question of corporate funding implementation of exploration and production investment projects," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(1), pages 126-136.
    5. Sebastian Jaimungal & Yuri Lawryshyn, 2017. "Using managerial revenue and cost estimates to value early stage real option investments," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 259(1), pages 173-190, December.
    6. repec:cor:louvrp:-2393 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. HATAMI-MARBINI, Adel & TAVANA, Madjid & EMROUZNEJAD, Ali & SAATI, Saber, 2012. "Efficiency measurement in fuzzy additive data envelopment analysis," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2393, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Kraemer, Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Using Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Assessing Investments in NGCC and CCS Energy Conversion Technology," FCN Working Papers 3/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Morgan, Horatio M. & Ngwenyama, Ojelanki, 2015. "Real options, learning cost and timing software upgrades: Towards an integrative model for enterprise software upgrade decision analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 211-223.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Collan, Mikael, 2008. "New Method for Real Option Valuation Using Fuzzy Numbers," Working Papers 466, IAMSR, Åbo Akademi.
    2. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    4. Morgan, Horatio M. & Ngwenyama, Ojelanki, 2015. "Real options, learning cost and timing software upgrades: Towards an integrative model for enterprise software upgrade decision analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 211-223.
    5. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    6. Luukka, Pasi & Collan, Mikael, 2015. "New fuzzy insurance pricing method for giga-investment project insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 22-29.
    7. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Fuzzy Real Investment Valuation Model for Giga-Investments, and a Note on Giga-Investment Lifecycle and Valuation," MPRA Paper 4329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138.
    9. Zmeskal, Zdenek, 2010. "Generalised soft binomial American real option pricing model (fuzzy-stochastic approach)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 1096-1103, December.
    10. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    11. Santos, Lúcia & Soares, Isabel & Mendes, Carla & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Real Options versus Traditional Methods to assess Renewable Energy Projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 588-594.
    12. Yongxin Yang & Yu Zheng & Timothy M. Hospedales, 2016. "Gated Neural Networks for Option Pricing: Rationality by Design," Papers 1609.07472, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    13. Kostrova, Alisa & Britz, Wolfgang & Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2016. "Monte-Carlo Simulation and Stochastic Programming in Real Options Valuation: the Case of Perennial Energy Crop Cultivation," Discussion Papers 250253, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    14. Engstrom, Malin & Norden, Lars, 2000. "The early exercise premium in American put option prices," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 461-479, December.
    15. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    16. Xiayan Zhang & Jingbo Yin, 2023. "Assessment of investment decisions in bulk shipping through fuzzy real options analysis," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 122-139, March.
    17. In oon Kim & Bong-Gyu Jang & Kyeong Tae Kim, 2013. "A simple iterative method for the valuation of American options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 885-895, May.
    18. Lin, Zhongguo & Han, Liyan & Li, Wei, 2021. "Option replication with transaction cost under Knightian uncertainty," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    19. Kenji Hamatani & Masao Fukushima, 2011. "Pricing American options with uncertain volatility through stochastic linear complementarity models," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 263-286, October.
    20. Nelson Areal & Artur Rodrigues & Manuel Armada, 2008. "On improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Option Valuation; Fuzzy Real Options; Fuzzy Numbers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Opzione (finanza) in Wikipedia Italian

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.