IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/1240.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Eventual Failure and Price Indeterminacy of Inflation Targeting

Author

Listed:
  • Eagle, David

Abstract

In stark contrast to the previous literature, we find that IT leads to price indeterminacy even when the central bank uses a Taylor-like feedback rule to peg the nominal interest rate. We also find that there is no mechanism with IT to determine the current inflation rate or price level. We conclude that the previous literature has either committed mathematical errors involving infinity or misused the non-explosive criterion for ruling out speculative bubbles. To avoid making errors involving infinity, we analyze inflation targeting (IT) in a typical rational-expectations, pure-exchange, general-equilibrium model where the time horizon is arbitrarily large, but finite.

Suggested Citation

  • Eagle, David, 2006. "The Eventual Failure and Price Indeterminacy of Inflation Targeting," MPRA Paper 1240, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1240/1/MPRA_paper_1240.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1883/1/MPRA_paper_1883.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
    2. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
    3. Ovidiu L. Calin & Yu Chen & Thomas F. Cosimano & Alex A. Himonas, 2005. "Solving Asset Pricing Models when the Price-Dividend Function Is Analytic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 961-982, May.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    5. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. On the perils of Taylor rules
      by David Andolfatto in MacroMania on 2012-12-29 02:20:00

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eagle, David, 2007. "Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting," MPRA Paper 1538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ludger Linnemann, 2004. "Tax Base and Crowding‐in Effects of Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 273-297, June.
    3. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, April.
    4. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    5. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    7. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Money Supply and the Implementation of Interest Rate Targets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-059/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    9. Liu, Zheng & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2007. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation," Kiel Working Papers 1357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Jensen Henrik, 2011. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.
    12. UMBA, Gilles Bertrand, 2017. "Estimation bayésienne d'un modèle DSGE pour une petite économie ouverte : Cas de la RD Congo [Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for a small open economy: Case of DR Congo]," MPRA Paper 81324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
    14. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2008. "The natural rate hypothesis and real determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-054, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    15. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-054 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christian A. Stoltenberg, 2012. "Real Balance Effects, Timing, and Equilibrium Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 981-994, August.
    17. Diba, Behzad & Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "Pegging the interest rate on bank reserves: A resolution of New Keynesian puzzles and paradoxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 230-244.
    18. Schabert, Andreas, 2004. "On the Relevance of Open Market Operations," Discussion Paper Series 26344, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    19. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
    20. Andreas Schabert & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2006. "Debt, Deficits, and Destabilizing Monetary Policy in Open Economies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-045/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    21. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola, 2013. "When Can Policy Makers Anchor Expectations? Dynamic controllability and the limits to time inconsistency," wp.comunite 0104, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; price determinacy; monetary policy; pegging interest rates; errors of infinity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.