Grain for Green: Balancing Ecological Protection and Food Security under Climate Change

Land use policy is crucial for food security and ecological protection. This study explores the impact of the world’s largest Grain for Green Program, which subsidizes more than 100 million farmers to convert sloped cropland to forests and grasslands, on crop productivity in China. By combining detailed county-level crop production data with remote sensing data, our difference-in-differences estimates suggest that while the program significantly reduced total cropland area, it led to an increase in total crop yield. The unexpected yield impact can be explained by the fact that the program significantly increased labor input and multiple cropping in the remaining cropland. More importantly, we find that the program substantially reduced the damage of drought and extreme heat on crop yield. Our findings suggest the possibility of adopting land use policy to protect the ecology without compromising food security in a developing country.