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Asymmetric Impact of Insecurity on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Usman, Gana
  • Umar Isah, Yahaya
  • Muhammad, Umar Farouq

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. It used non-linear autoregressive distributed Lag model to show effect of insecurity proxied by terrorism index and crime rate on agricultural productivity proxied agriculture share of gross domestic product. Quarterly time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, Institute for Economic and Peace and World Development Indicators for the period 2009Q1 to 2022Q4. Major findings revealed significant long and short run asymmetric impact of terrorism on agricultural productivity, as increase and decrease in terrorism and crime rate in Nigeria cause disproportionate change in agricultural productivity. The paper concludes that insecurity is a major determinant of agricultural productivity in Nigeria and recommends in favor of the need to re-invest in the security sector especially in rural communities of Nigeria where impact of insurgencies and other forms of terrorism are prevalent. This will help reduce the effect of terrorism on agricultural productivity in food producing communities, in addition to helping communities affected by terrorism to revive their interests in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Usman, Gana & Umar Isah, Yahaya & Muhammad, Umar Farouq, 2024. "Asymmetric Impact of Insecurity on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 123113, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123113
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/123113/1/MPRA_paper_123113.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:arp:sjbmms:2019:p:59-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 939-993.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural productivity; insecurity; terrorism; crime rate; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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