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P-Values on the Free-Slave State Border: A Critique of Bleakley and Rhode

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  • Francis, Joseph

Abstract

Hoyt Bleakley and Paul Rhode use a “regression discontinuity design” (RDD) to find a persistent negative effect of slavery’s legality on rural population density throughout the period from 1790 to 1860. Yet their reported results cannot be replicated. Instead, the replication shows slavery’s negative effects only become statistically significant from 1840 onwards. Furthermore, the addition of an interaction term for slavery’s legality multiplied by longitude suggests that slavery may have facilitated the westward expansion of the Southern frontier in the antebellum period. This does not support the claim that slavery impeded the growth of American capitalism.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis, Joseph, 2024. "P-Values on the Free-Slave State Border: A Critique of Bleakley and Rhode," MPRA Paper 122197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122197
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122197/1/MPRA_paper_122197.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoyt Bleakley & Paul Rhode, 2024. "The Economic Effects of American Slavery: Tests at the Border," NBER Working Papers 32640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Clegg & Duncan Foley, 2019. "A classical-Marxian model of antebellum slavery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(1), pages 107-138.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      Slavery; American capitalism; economic history; replication; regression dis-continuity design;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
      • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
      • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
      • N51 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
      • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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