IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/121540.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting full retirement attainment of NBA players

Author

Listed:
  • Foutzopoulos, Giorgos
  • Pandis, Nikolaos
  • Tsagris, Michail

Abstract

The aim of this analysis is to predict whether an National Basketball Association (NBA) player will be active in the league for at least 10 years so as to be qualified for NBA's full retirement scheme which allows for the maximum benefit payable by law. We collected per game statistics for players during their second year, drafted during the years 1999 up to 2006, for which, information on their career longetivity is known. By feeding these statistics of the sophomore players into statistical and machine learning algorithms we select the important statistics and manage to accomplish a satisfactory predictability performance. Further, we visualize the effect of each of the selected statistics on the estimated probability of staying in the league for more than 10 years. Finally, as an illustration, we collected data from players that were drafted 11 years ago (and some are still active) and estimated their probability of surviving in the league for at least 10 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Foutzopoulos, Giorgos & Pandis, Nikolaos & Tsagris, Michail, 2024. "Predicting full retirement attainment of NBA players," MPRA Paper 121540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121540
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121540/1/MPRA_paper_121540.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnny Ducking & Peter Groothuis & James Hill, 2015. "Exit Discrimination in the NFL: A Duration Analysis of Career Length," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 285-299, September.
    2. Kursa, Miron B. & Rudnicki, Witold R., 2010. "Feature Selection with the Boruta Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 36(i11).
    3. Wright, Marvin N. & Ziegler, Andreas, 2017. "ranger: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in C++ and R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 77(i01).
    4. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    5. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    6. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Strauss, Jack & Williams, T.H., 2024. "Unlocking the black box of sentiment and cryptocurrency: What, which, why, when and how?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Alexander Kirpich & Elizabeth A Ainsworth & Jessica M Wedow & Jeremy R B Newman & George Michailidis & Lauren M McIntyre, 2018. "Variable selection in omics data: A practical evaluation of small sample sizes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Satre-Meloy, Aven & Diakonova, Marina & Grünewald, Philipp, 2020. "Cluster analysis and prediction of residential peak demand profiles using occupant activity data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Mues, Christophe, 2021. "How can lenders prosper? Comparing machine learning approaches to identify profitable peer-to-peer loan investments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 711-722.
    5. Abhijeet R Patil & Sangjin Kim, 2020. "Combination of Ensembles of Regularized Regression Models with Resampling-Based Lasso Feature Selection in High Dimensional Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    7. Mkhadri, Abdallah & Ouhourane, Mohamed, 2013. "An extended variable inclusion and shrinkage algorithm for correlated variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 631-644.
    8. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    9. Christopher J Greenwood & George J Youssef & Primrose Letcher & Jacqui A Macdonald & Lauryn J Hagg & Ann Sanson & Jenn Mcintosh & Delyse M Hutchinson & John W Toumbourou & Matthew Fuller-Tyszkiewicz &, 2020. "A comparison of penalised regression methods for informing the selection of predictive markers," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Gustavo A. Alonso-Silverio & Víctor Francisco-García & Iris P. Guzmán-Guzmán & Elías Ventura-Molina & Antonio Alarcón-Paredes, 2021. "Toward Non-Invasive Estimation of Blood Glucose Concentration: A Comparative Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-13, October.
    11. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    12. Gurgul Henryk & Machno Artur, 2017. "Trade Pattern on Warsaw Stock Exchange and Prediction of Number of Trades," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 18(1), pages 91-114, March.
    13. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    14. Zichen Zhang & Ye Eun Bae & Jonathan R. Bradley & Lang Wu & Chong Wu, 2022. "SUMMIT: An integrative approach for better transcriptomic data imputation improves causal gene identification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Štefan Lyócsa & Petra Vašaničová & Branka Hadji Misheva & Marko Dávid Vateha, 2022. "Default or profit scoring credit systems? Evidence from European and US peer-to-peer lending markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Peter Bühlmann & Jacopo Mandozzi, 2014. "High-dimensional variable screening and bias in subsequent inference, with an empirical comparison," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 407-430, June.
    17. Capanu, Marinela & Giurcanu, Mihai & Begg, Colin B. & Gönen, Mithat, 2023. "Subsampling based variable selection for generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Abhinav Kaushik & Diane Dunham & Xiaorui Han & Evan Do & Sandra Andorf & Sheena Gupta & Andrea Fernandes & Laurie Elizabeth Kost & Sayantani B. Sindher & Wong Yu & Mindy Tsai & Robert Tibshirani & Sco, 2022. "CD8+ T cell differentiation status correlates with the feasibility of sustained unresponsiveness following oral immunotherapy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    20. Michele Lalla & Patrizio Frederic, 2020. "Tertiary education decisions of immigrants and non-immigrants in Italy: an empirical approach," Department of Economics 0168, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BA; career duration; exit discrimination; retirement scheme;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.