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Proyección del Consumo Privado de Argentina por medio de un Modelo de Corrección de Errores
[Projection of Argentina's Private Consumption through an Error Correction Model]

Author

Listed:
  • Frank, Luis

Abstract

The article proposes a demand function to project the quarterly private consumption of the System of National Accounts. The input variables of this function are the CPI/Wage Index ratio and the real GDP. Since all these variables are cointegrated, an error correction model (ECM) is used to represent the demand function and estimate bothe the short and long-term elasticities during the period I-2017 to III-2023. Then a projection strategy for private consumption is proposed based on the previously estimated elasticities, and market expectations about real GDP, CPI and an ad-hoc wage index. At the end of the article, the convenience of representing the demand function through a model of time-varying parameters is briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Luis, 2024. "Proyección del Consumo Privado de Argentina por medio de un Modelo de Corrección de Errores [Projection of Argentina's Private Consumption through an Error Correction Model]," MPRA Paper 121181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121181
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121181/1/MPRA_paper_121181.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alfredo Schclarek, 2003. "Política fiscal y consumo privado: algunas extensiones," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 20(41), pages 49-72, January-d.
    2. Kalaba, Robert & Rasakhoo, Nima & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1989. "A FORTRAN program for time-varying linear regression via flexible least squares," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-309, February.
    3. Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 664-703, October.
    4. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption projection; ECM; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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