IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11680.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand for International Reserves: A Quantile Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sula, Ozan

Abstract

I estimate the determinants of the demand for international reserves using quantile regressions. Employing a dataset of 96 developing nations over the period of 1980-1996, I find considerable differences at different points of the conditional distribution of reserves. The ordinary least squares estimates of elasticities that were found to be insignificant in previous studies become statistically significant at various quantiles of the reserve holding distribution. In particular, I find that the coefficients of interest rate differential and volatility of export receipts are significant and have the signs predicted by the traditional reserve models, but only for those nations that hold the highest amount of reserves. In contrast, the flexibility of the exchange rate does not seem to be an important factor for the nations that are located at the tails of the distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Sula, Ozan, 2008. "Demand for International Reserves: A Quantile Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 11680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11680
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11680/1/MPRA_paper_11680.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grubel, Herbert G, 1971. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Critical Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1148-1166, December.
    2. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Marion, Nancy P. & Perry, David, 2007. "Drift control of international reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3110-3137, September.
    3. Moshe Buchinsky, 1998. "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 88-126.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    5. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November.
    6. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    7. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
    8. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    9. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall.
    10. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    11. repec:bla:econom:v:41:y:1974:i:161:p:14-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    13. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
    14. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "On the Effect of Opportunity Cost on International Reserve Holdings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 329-332, May.
    15. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Omar Arias & Walter Sosa-Escudero & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 7-40.
    18. Thomas D. Willett, 1980. "International Liquidity Issues," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 969488, September.
    19. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "Buffer stocks and precautionary savings with loss aversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 931-947, December.
    21. Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2004. "Insurance Value of International Reserves: An Option Pricing Approach," IMF Working Papers 2004/175, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Claassen, Emil-Maria, 1975. "Demand for International Reserves and the Optimum Mix and Speed of Adjustment Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 446-453, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    2. Luis Fernando Gamboa & Mauricio Rodríguez-Acosta & Andrés Felipe García-Suaza, 2010. "Academic achievement in sciences: the role of preferences and educative assets," Documentos de Trabajo 6701, Universidad del Rosario.
    3. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Rodríguez Acosta, Mauricio & García Suaza, Andrés, 2013. "Differences in motivations and academic achievement," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 78, pages 9-44, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    3. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kim, Won Joong & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D., 2014. "Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals, financial stress and economic uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 170-189.
    5. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece.
    6. Sula, Ozan & Oguzoglu, Umut, 2021. "International reserves and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 16-28.
    7. Hee-Ryang Ra, 2008. "Dilution of Opportunity Cost Effect on the Demand for International Reserves in the High Reserve Era," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 151-171.
    8. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    10. Yan Zhou, 2009. "International Reserves and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 942-960, November.
    11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2009. "A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 447-481.
    12. Samba Michel Cyrille, 2015. "International Reserves Holdings in the CEMAC Area: Adequacy and Motives," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(4), pages 415-427, December.
    13. Yin-wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2007. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup¡¦s Wardrobe and the Joneses," Working Papers 132007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Mr. Sunil Sharma & Woon Gyu Choi & Maria Strömqvist, 2007. "Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2007/151, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    16. Avner Bar‐Ilan & Nancy P. Marion, 2009. "A Macroeconomic Perspective on Reserve Accumulation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 802-823, September.
    17. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup's Wardrobe and the Joneses," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 824-843, September.
    18. Stijn Kelchtermans & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2011. "The great divide in scientific productivity: why the average scientist does not exist," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 20(1), pages 295-336, February.
    19. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2009. "What is Driving Reserve Accumulation? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 861-877, September.
    20. Ramachandran, M., 2006. "On the upsurge of foreign exchange reserves in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 797-809, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International reserves; Quantile regression; Demand for reserves; Reserve policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11680. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.