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Sesgos de revisión en el Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica de Argentina
[Revision biases in the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity of Argentina]

Author

Listed:
  • Frank, Luis

Abstract

The article presents evidence of bias in the revisions of the EMAE, both in the mean and in the variance. The biases are bearish on the monthly and quarterly revisions (around -0.18 and -0.16%, respectively), and bullish (+0.34%) on the annual revisions. The monthly and quarterly biases are attributed to the series reconciliation process, while the annual biases are attributed to the distribution of the so-called "statistical discrepancy" among the macroeconomic aggregates. Due to the complexity of the covariance structure produced by the revisions, it is recommended, for econometric purposes, to use series without revision or revised only once.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Luis, 2022. "Sesgos de revisión en el Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica de Argentina [Revision biases in the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity of Argentina]," MPRA Paper 115248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115248
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115248/1/MPRA_paper_115248.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robin Youll, 2008. "Dealing with potential bias in early estimates of GDP," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 2(7), pages 48-52, July.
    2. Sim, Benson & de Castro, Modesta & Pascua, Melissa, 2009. "An Analysis of Revisions to Annual GDP Estimates of Six ADB Regional Members," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 184, Asian Development Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity; EMAE; revision bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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