أثر التغيرات الاقتصادية والسياسية المعاصرة على الأداء الاقتصادي لمحصول الأرز المصري[Contemporary economic and political changes impact on the economic performance of the Egyptian rice]

This study aims to analyze the economics of the Egyptian rice enterprise performance in terms of the evolution of both the production and foreign trade, prices, costs and profitability together with throwing highlights on the environmental risks of burning rice straw and recycled alternatives as an approach to increase the value added of the main crop. The study relied on published and unpublished secondary data and review of literature. The study estimated the time trend models for the most important variables that determine the volume of rice production and estimated the annual rates of variation of these variables and indicators which, due to political and economic changes during the study period (1999 - 2015), were behind the fluctuations in production. The magnitude of such fluctuation was estimated as the instability factor. The main results showed continuous fluctuations in cultivated rice which resulted in instability during the study period (1999 - 2015), where the coefficient of instability within the concerned period was about 81% and 88% for rice acreage and yield per faddan. This was probably due to the intervention of the state in determining cultivated area of rice. These fluctuations demonstrated a lack of significant statistical time trend of rice area and its productivity, which in turn reflected on the volume of produce. The fluctuations in local rice production, acreage and insignificant yield growth associated with fluctuations in annual rice exports. Fluctuations in exports were increased because of the unstable changes in export policies aimed prevention of exports for availability and accessibility of rice in the domestic market to saturate the local demand. Such policies implied in several years to import a quite considered quantities of rice. The study, also, showed that the resultant of fluctuations in the acreage and changes in production development policies such as introducing the high yield new varieties and mechanical harvest using the combine caused apparent deficiency in production of rice straw. The study also showed that with the launch of market mechanisms, remove subsidies for agricultural production supplies, devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the dollar, the increase in the costs of producing one ton of rice was a result of the increase in prices of chemical fertilizers, human labor, agricultural mechanization systems and rent value per faddan. However, such increase in costs per ton associated with a relatively higher farm gate price per ton of rice leading to increase in the profit per ton. The average producer profit per ton as a percent of the farm gate price was estimated as 43%. The study indicated that recycling of the abundant rice straw and other byproducts into several specified alternatives would raise the value added of this crop and then raise the economic feasibility of resources devoted for rice enterprise, despite its relatively high requirements of the limited water resources available, compared to the competitive crop which is maize.