IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/108129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hysteresis without Hope: investigating unemployment persistence in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Dadam, Vincent
  • Viegi, Nicola

Abstract

This paper investigates hysteresis in South Africa's unemployment. First we test the presence of hysteresis in unemployment both by traditional stationarity tests and by us- ing non-linear transformation methods to identify two further characteristics of hysteresis, namely remanence and selective memory. In the second part of the paper we estimate a simple insider-outsider model using a Bayesian VAR methodology to identify the shocks driving the unemployment dynamics. The main �nding is that shocks to nominal wages and mark-up shocks as the main drivers of unemployment. Demand shocks do not play a dominant role. These results point to the di�culty of absorbing the current level of unemployment without signi�cant positive shocks in market structure and wage setting behaviour. The strong hysteresis present in the data shows that this excessive level of un- employment can become "equilibrium": the South African labour market presents features of the worst kind of hysteresis, a hysteresis without "hope". �

Suggested Citation

  • Dadam, Vincent & Viegi, Nicola, 2021. "Hysteresis without Hope: investigating unemployment persistence in South Africa," MPRA Paper 108129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/108129/1/MPRA_paper_108129.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 55-67, March.
    3. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    4. Luca Gambetti & Barbara Pistoresi, 2004. "Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 209-226, May.
    5. Piscitelli, Laura & Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir, 2000. "A Test for Strong Hysteresis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(1-2), pages 59-78, April.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    7. Susanne Maidorn, 2003. "The effects of shocks on the Austrian unemployment rate – a structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 387-402, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Adams & Derek Yu, 2022. "Labour market trends in South Africa in 2009-2019: A lost decade?," Working Papers 03/2022, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Viegi & Vincent Dadam, 2023. "Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa," Working Papers 11043, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    3. Holmlund, Bertil & Alexius, Annika, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    4. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:256-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Koray Yıldırım & Neşe Algan & Harun Bal, 2024. "Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 143-176, February.
    6. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    7. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    8. Tafirenyika SUNDE, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment in Namibia," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 256-274, December.
    9. Castillo, Sonsoles & Jimeno, Juan F., 1998. "A tale of two neighbour economies: labour market dynamics in Portugal and Spain," UC3M Working papers. Economics 4154, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Sushant Acharya & Julien Bengui & Keshav Dogra & Shu Lin Wee, 2022. "Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2007-2047.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    14. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    15. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    16. Niels Framroze Møller, 2019. "Decoding unemployment persistence: an econometric framework for identifying and comparing the sources of persistence with an application to UK macrodata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1489-1514, May.
    17. Belke Ansgar & Göcke Matthias, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    18. Göcke, Matthias, 2012. "Play-hysteresis in supply as part of a market model," Discussion Papers 61, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    19. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    20. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
    21. Elías Albagli I. & Pablo García S. & Jorge Restrepo L., 2004. "Evaluating Labor Market Flexibility in Chile from an International Perspective," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(2), pages 27-46, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis; unemployment; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.