IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/106776.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The vulnerability of Islamic bank’s credit risk to oil price shocks: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Rahman, Syarifah
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

Credit risk analysis is a key to a better financial risk management. This issue has been the primary focus of financial and banking industry since loans are the largest and most prominent source of credit risk. Unlike the conventional banking, there is a lack of empirical study on credit risk about Islamic banking. As such, further research regarding the vulnerability of the Islamic banking industry has become vital. Accordingly, this paper is aimed at determining and assessing the long run vulnerabilities of Malaysian Islamic banks in term of its response to the shocks of the price of crude oil. The fall in oil prices is believed to have an impact on loans’ repayment. Additionally, the selected key macroeconomic variables used in this study will be used as controlled variables so that the model will not be spurious. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed to test this relationship, controlling for information in other financial and economic indicators. Based on the result of variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response function (IRF), it is found that, sufficient evidence of a long-run relationship exists between credit risk ratio in Islamic banking industry and the selected macroeconomic variables. The results tend to indicate that oil price shocks are an endogenous variable in the short-run dynamics, and the ranking provided byVDCs indicates that oil price shocks are least likely to have affected the Non-performing financing (NPF) ratio of Islamic banks as it is ranked at 6th place.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman, Syarifah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The vulnerability of Islamic bank’s credit risk to oil price shocks: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106776
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106776/1/MPRA_paper_106776.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Demirguc, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1999. "Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 379-408, May.
    3. Ali Said, 2013. "Risks and Efficiency in the Islamic Banking Systems: The Case of Selected Islamic Banks in MENA Region," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 66-73.
    4. Shamsudheen, Shinaj Valangattil & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Does the conventional benchmark prop up non-performing loans in Islamic banks? A case study of Malaysia with ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 65845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
    6. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    7. Marc Gronwald, 2008. "Large Oil Shocks and the US Economy: Infrequent Incidents with Large Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 151-172.
    8. Fatima S. Al Shamsi & Hassan Aly & Mohamed El-Bassiouni, 2009. "Measuring and explaining the efficiencies of the United Arab Emirates banking system," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(27), pages 3505-3519.
    9. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    10. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    11. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    12. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    13. Ali Said, 2015. "The Influence of Oil Prices on Islamic Banking Efficiency Scores during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the MENA Area," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 35-43, July.
    14. Martin Čihák & Heiko Hesse, 2010. "Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 95-113, December.
    15. Abdus Samad, 2004. "Performance Of Interest-Free Islamic Banks Vis-À-Vis Interest-Based Conventional Banks Of Bahrain," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 12(2), December .
    16. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    17. Mr. Heiko Hesse & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Oil Prices and Bank Profitability: Evidence From Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 2009/220, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2016. "Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility," IMF Working Papers 2016/012, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2004. "Information and bank credit allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 185-214, April.
    20. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Songur, 2021. "A Review On The Relationship Between Oil Prices And Stock Prices In Turkey: New Evidences From Fourier Approach," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(1), pages 101-111.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Said, 2015. "The Influence of Oil Prices on Islamic Banking Efficiency Scores during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the MENA Area," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 35-43, July.
    2. Yoon, Kyung Hwan & Ratti, Ronald A., 2011. "Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 67-78, January.
    3. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Jbir, Rafik & Zouari-Ghorbel, Sonia, 2009. "Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1041-1051, March.
    5. Mohamed El Hédi Arouri & Philippe Foulquier & Julien Fouquau, 2011. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Europe: A Sector Perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 77(1), pages 5-30.
    6. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    7. Akoum, Ibrahim & Graham, Michael & Kivihaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammed, 2012. "Co-movement of oil and stock prices in the GCC region: A wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 385-394.
    8. Anand, B. & Paul, Sunil & Ramachandran, M., 2014. "Volatility Spillover between Oil and Stock Market Returns," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    9. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    10. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    11. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    12. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    13. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
    15. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seol, Youn & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2011. "Relative energy price and investment by European firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 721-731, September.
    16. Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Tran Ngoc Tho & Dinh Thi Thu Hong, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 42-49.
    17. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    18. Samet Evci & İrem Kefe & İlker Kefe, 2024. "The Impact of Energy Prices on the Performance of Banks in Türkiye," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 492-500, November.
    19. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
    20. Togonidze, Sophio & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Islamic banks; Non-performing financing (NPF); oil price; ARDL; VDC; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106776. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.