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Reddit's Self-Organised Bull Runs

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  • Semenova, Valentina
  • Winkler, Julian

Abstract

Tracking endogenous fluctuations in stock prices emerged as a key challenge for empirical work in behavioural and evolutionary finance. This paper uses new data from an online discussion forum, Reddit, to quantify social contagion, or `hype,' in specific stock market movements, using state of the art opinion dynamics modelling and sentiment analysis. The influence between users on the WallStreetBets (WSB) subreddit is measured by tracing the probability of a user starting a fresh discussion on an asset given their previous involvement in a discussion on the same asset, measured by their comment history. This paper finds that users who comment on one discussion involving a particular asset are approximately four times more likely to start a new discussion about this asset in the future, with the probability increasing with each additional discussion the user engages in. This is a strong indication that investment strategies are reproduced through social interaction. This is further validated by findings that sentiments expressed in the linked submissions are strongly correlated in a set of spatial regression models. In particular, bearish sentiments seem to spread more than their bullish counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Semenova, Valentina & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Reddit's Self-Organised Bull Runs," MPRA Paper 105443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105443
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles, and Stock Market Participation: A Case for Narrow Framing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1069-1090, September.
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    7. Federico Musciotto & Luca Marotta & Jyrki Piilo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2018. "Long-term ecology of investors in a financial market," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tolga Buz & Gerard de Melo, 2021. "Should You Take Investment Advice From WallStreetBets? A Data-Driven Approach," Papers 2105.02728, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Network Economics; Opinion Dynamics; Natural Language Processing; Behavioral Finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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