IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/104951.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Paving the Way for an Economic Crisis with High Leverage and Currency Mismatches: 2018-19 Crisis in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Ozatay, Fatih

Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis monetary policies in advanced economies caused a surge in cross-border lending to emerging market economies (EMEs). Policymakers of EMEs criticized those policies on the grounds that they pave the way for financial imbalances in EMEs and called for international policy coordination. Up to mid-2018 leverage of banks and foreign currency exposure of nonfinancial corporates increased sharply in Turkey. Under these conditions, a shock that causes a stop in capital flows can trigger crisis in EMEs. The Turkish economy was hit by several external shocks and entered a recession in the third quarter of 2018. This study aims at analyzing the role of financial vulnerabilities and domestic policies in Turkey’s 2018-19 crisis and draw policy lessons. We argue that, notwithstanding complaints regarding lack of international policy coordination, domestic policy mistakes played an important role in paving the way for the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozatay, Fatih, 2020. "Paving the Way for an Economic Crisis with High Leverage and Currency Mismatches: 2018-19 Crisis in Turkey," MPRA Paper 104951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104951
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/104951/1/MPRA_paper_104951.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    3. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    4. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    5. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    6. C. Emre Alper & Ziya Onis, 2003. "Financial Globalization, the Democratic Deficit, and Recurrent Crises in Emerging Markets : The Turkish Experience in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalization," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 5-26, May.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    8. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh, 2013. "Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
    9. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    10. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    11. Koray Alper & Mahir Binici & Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Özlü, 2018. "Reserve Requirements, Liquidity Risk, and Bank Lending Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 817-827, June.
    12. Robert C. Feenstra & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feen11-1.
    13. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    14. John Taylor, 2013. "International Monetary Policy Coordination: Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 12-034, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Jeffrey Frankel & Christopher Pissarides, 2009. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran08-1.
    16. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:867-894 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Stefan Avdjiev & Michael Chui & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Non-financial corporations from emerging market economies and capital flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    19. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-893, April.
    20. Aytül Ganİoğlu, 2016. "Financial and Political Institutional Problems as Instigators of Banking Crises," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(4), pages 292-312, December.
    21. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, 2013. "Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2013/011, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    23. Robert C. Feenstra & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Introduction to "Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century"," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carvalho, Daniel, 2020. "Leverage and valuation effects: How global liquidity shapes sectoral balance sheets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Haas, Adam, 2021. "In search of distress risk in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    5. Dennis Bernhard Sebastian Reinhardt & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "Las olas de capital no son todas iguales: análisis sectorial de las alzas en las entradas de IED," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 57-92, abril-jun.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    8. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian T. Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," Research Working Paper RWP 20-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Haakon Kavli & Nicola Viegi, 2015. "Portfolio Flows in a Two-Country RBC Model with Financial Intermediaries," Working Papers 201568, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    11. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    12. Broos, Menno & Ghalanos, Michalis & Kennedy, Bernard & Landbeck, Alexander & Lerner, Christina & Menezes, Paula & Schiavone, Alessandro & Tilley, Thomas & Viani, Francesca & Reinhardt, Dennis & Metzem, 2016. "Dealing with large and volatile capital flows and the role of the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 180, European Central Bank.
    13. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz K. & Carmen María Reinhart., 2015. "Capital mobility and monetary policy: an overview," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 50-66, April.
    15. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    16. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    17. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macroeconomic surveillance of portfolio flows and its real effects: Malaysia's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis; cross-border lending; currency mismatches; leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.