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Future Fiscal Adjustments and Debt Sustainability

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  • Razzak, Weshah

Abstract

We estimate a VAR, which summarizes the dynamics of five variables, the real price of oil, the long-run real interest rate, real GDP, the primary fiscal balance-GDP, and debt-GDP. We make dynamic stochastic projections and use the data to compute the annual primary fiscal balance required to achieve a particular debt-GDP target over the period from the end of the sample in 2018 to 2024. For Oman to achieve a debt-GDP target between 60 to 20 percent in 2024, it has to increase its annual primary fiscal balance by about OR 4 Billion (USD 10.4 Billion) either by increasing revenues, decrease expenditures, or both. This figure increases substantially if Oman wants to achieve the target earlier than 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Razzak, Weshah, 2020. "Future Fiscal Adjustments and Debt Sustainability," MPRA Paper 103380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103380
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    2. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.
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    6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    7. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External debt; fiscal balance; fiscal adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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