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The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US

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  • Kaufmann, Sylvia
  • Valderrama, Maria Teresa

Abstract

We analyse the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions. For the euro area, we find a regime which is correlated to the business cycle and which captures periods of very low real credit growth at the end of recessions. However, during this regime credit markets and asset price markets do not impede economic recovery. In the other regime, we do find a procyclical effect of credit and asset price shocks on GDP. Shocks in both variables explain each about 20% of GDP's forecast error variance after four years. Credit shocks have a positive effect on inflation and explain about 35% of the forecast error variance, which confirms that credit aggregates contain information about the monetary stance. The effect of asset price shocks on inflation is insignificant and their share in explaining the forecast error variance negligible. For the US, regime 1 captures periods of stable GDP growth, and low and stable inflation, combined with accelerating asset prices. We find procyclical effects of credit and asset price shocks on GDP only in regime 2. Shocks in both variables explain about the same share (20%) of GDP forecast error variance, whereby the share explained by asset price shocks is about two and a half times larger than in regime 1. Shocks to credit and asset prices have no significant effect on CPI and explain each about 10% of its forecast error variance in both regimes. This is consistent with the view that monetary policy may achieve price stability without necessarily achieving financial stability. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Kaufmann, Sylvia & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2007. "The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US," Working Paper Series 816, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007816
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    Cited by:

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    2. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 315-327.
    3. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    4. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
    5. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    6. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1025-1040, March.
    8. Romuald Morhs, 2010. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Luxembourg: Results from a VAR Analysis," BCL working papers 49, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    9. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    10. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl Habermeier & Vikram Haksar & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011. "Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?," Discussion Papers 11-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    12. Eddie Gerba & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Macro-financial interactions in a changing world," Working Papers 2018, Banco de España.
    13. Gerba, Eddie & Leiva-León, Danilo & Rubio, Margarita, 2024. "Inspecting cross-border macro-financial mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "Calibrating macroprudential policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 354, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Prices; asymmetry; financial system; lending; transmission mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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