IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101572.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political Cognitive Biases Effects on Fund Managers' Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Moszoro, Marian

Abstract

Does political affiliation matter for stock-market investing? Rare events can produce polarized narratives that potentiate cognitive dissonance on a spectrum of agents. Using a comprehensive dataset of equity hedge funds' performance and managers' political affiliation matched by their partisan contributions, I document higher returns of funds managed by Democrats for ten subsequent months—from December 2008 to September 2009—when the interpretation of the US central bank policy was politically polarized and conducive to cognitive dissonance. This result is robust to a set of falsification tests and randomized quasi-experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Moszoro, Marian, 2020. "Political Cognitive Biases Effects on Fund Managers' Performance," MPRA Paper 101572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101572
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101572/1/MPRA_paper_101572.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Hong, Harrison & Kostovetsky, Leonard, 2012. "Red and blue investing: Values and finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 1-19.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    4. Di Giuli, Alberta & Kostovetsky, Leonard, 2014. "Are red or blue companies more likely to go green? Politics and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 158-180.
    5. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    6. Akerlof, George A & Dickens, William T, 1982. "The Economic Consequences of Cognitive Dissonance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 307-319, June.
    7. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    8. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    9. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3471-3518. is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    11. Gao, Meng & Huang, Jiekun, 2016. "Capitalizing on Capitol Hill: Informed trading by hedge fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 521-545.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    13. Hutton, Irena & Jiang, Danling & Kumar, Alok, 2014. "Corporate Policies of Republican Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1279-1310, December.
    14. Veronika K. Pool & Noah Stoffman & Scott E. Yonker, 2015. "The People in Your Neighborhood: Social Interactions and Mutual Fund Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2679-2732, December.
    15. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    16. Jawad M. Addoum & Alok Kumar, 2016. "Political Sentiment and Predictable Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3471-3518.
    17. Ahern, Kenneth R., 2017. "Information networks: Evidence from illegal insider trading tips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 26-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu, 2019. "Land acquisition outcome, developer risk attitude and land development timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 233-271, August.
    2. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    3. Gerald Spindler, 2011. "Behavioural Finance and Investor Protection Regulations," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 315-336, September.
    4. Alnahedh, Saad & Alhashel, Bader, 2024. "Firm executive political leanings, Washington, and stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 476-491.
    5. Adam L. Aiken & Jesse A. Ellis & Minjeong Kang, 2020. "Do Politicians “Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is?” Ideology and Portfolio Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 376-396, January.
    6. Jeong, Nara & Kim, Nari & Arthurs, Jonathan D., 2021. "The CEO’s tenure life cycle, corporate social responsibility and the moderating role of the CEO’s political orientation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 464-474.
    7. Kai Barron, 2021. "Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
    8. Mercè Roca & Robin Hogarth & A. Maule, 2006. "Ambiguity seeking as a result of the status quo bias," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 175-194, May.
    9. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.
    10. Alan D. Jagolinzer & David F. Larcker & Gaizka Ormazabal & Daniel J. Taylor, 2020. "Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1833-1876, August.
    11. Bonaparte, Yosef & Khalaf, Sarah & Korniotis, George, 2022. "The Obama Effect: Heightened Risk Tolerance, Optimism, and Wealth Accumulation by Minorities after 2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 14264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ebert, Sebastian & Hilpert, Christian, 2019. "Skewness preference and the popularity of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Cronqvist, Henrik & Yu, Frank, 2017. "Shaped by their daughters: Executives, female socialization, and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 543-562.
    14. Li, Chengcheng & Wang, Xiaoqiong, 2022. "Local peer effects of corporate social responsibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Dorian Jullien, 2016. "All Frames Created Equal are Not Identical: On the Structure of Kahneman and Tversky's Framing Effects," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-17, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    16. Cheng, Teng Yuan & Lee, Chun I. & Lin, Chao Hsien, 2020. "The effect of risk-taking behavior on profitability: Evidence from futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 19-38.
    17. Bhandari, Avishek & Golden, Joanna, 2021. "CEO political preference and credit ratings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Banerjee, Debosree, 2014. "Ethnicity and Gender Differences in Risk, Ambiguity Attitude," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 180978, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    19. Cathleen Johnson & Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Zhihua Li & Dennie Dolder & Peter P. Wakker, 2021. "Prince: An improved method for measuring incentivized preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, February.
    20. Vanessa Martins Valcanover & Igor Bernardi Sonza & Wesley Vieira da Silva, 2020. "Behavioral Finance Experiments: A Recent Systematic Literature Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Biases; Money Managers' Performance;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.