IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/100780.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The reproduction number and its measurement. A critique of the Robert Koch Institute

Author

Listed:
  • Quaas, Georg

Abstract

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has the goal of „protecting the population from disease and improving their state of health“ (RKI 2017). To this end, it develops research-based concrete recommendations for policy and makes data available to the expert public. Since the April 3, 2020, it has been publishing daily the numbers of corona infections reported by the health authorities, since the April 9, 2020, also the number of deaths from this infection and since April 25, 2020, the estimated number of convalescents. The so-called reproduction number reported since April 7, 2020, have largely superseded all other criteria by which the public health policy is guided. This article shows that the calculation of this figure by the RKI is neither theory-based nor particularly reliable. Nevertheless, there is a simple way to determine this number in the framework of the classic epidemic model (CEM). This study makes explicit important parts of the theoretical background of the CEM with the goal to underline that the method of determining the reproduction number empirically is a theoretically defined matter and cannot be replaced by a phenomenological method.

Suggested Citation

  • Quaas, Georg, 2020. "The reproduction number and its measurement. A critique of the Robert Koch Institute," MPRA Paper 100780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100780/1/MPRA_paper_100780.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    3. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    4. Kutuk, Yasin, 2022. "Inequality convergence: A world-systems theory approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 150-165.
    5. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1993. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM ed4275fb-b14f-4175-a63f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Lederman, Daniel & Saenz, Laura, 2005. "Innovation and development around the world, 1960-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3774, The World Bank.
    7. Tung Liu & Kui-Wai Li, 2008. "Revisiting Solow’s Decomposition of Economic and Productivity Growth," Working Papers 200805, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2008.
    8. Jan Fagerberg & Martin Srholec, 2017. "Global Dynamics, Capabilities and the Crisis," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 83-106, Springer.
    9. Hadi Sasana & Imam Ghozali, 2017. "The Impact of Fossil and Renewable Energy Consumption on the Economic Growth in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 194-200.
    10. Kumar, Sanjesh & Singh, Baljeet, 2019. "Barriers to the international diffusion of technological innovations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 74-86.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cornelia Serena, PASCA, 2016. "The Human Capital - A Long Term Investment," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 1(4), pages 51-62.
    13. Gordon Cordina, 2004. "Economic Vulnerability And Economic Growth: Some Results From A Neo-Classical Growth Modelling Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 21-39, December.
    14. Sorin Celea & Petre Brezeanu & Ana Petrina Păun, 2013. "Fiscal Discipline within the EU: Comparative Analysis," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 13(2), pages 23-30.
    15. Joshua Hall & Robert Lawson, 2008. "Theory and evidence on economic freedom and economic growth: A comment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(18), pages 1-6.
    16. Roberto Martino & Phu Nguyen-Van, 2014. "Labour market regulation and fiscal parameters: A structural model for European regions," Working Papers of BETA 2014-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    17. Sodiq Arogundade & Mduduzi Biyase & Hinaunye Eita, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries:Does local Economic Conditions Matter?," Economic Development and Well-being Research Group Working Paper Series edwrg-01-2021, University of Johannesburg, College of Business and Economics, revised 2021.
    18. Ravelojaona, Paola, 2019. "On constant elasticity of substitution – Constant elasticity of transformation Directional Distance Functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 780-791.
    19. Blomström, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 2003. "Human Capital and Inward FDI," CEPR Discussion Papers 3762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Martin Henning & Hans Westlund & Kerstin Enflo, 2023. "Urban–rural population changes and spatial inequalities in Sweden," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 878-892, May.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8651 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Classic epidemic model; reproduction number; economic cost of health policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.