IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/100546.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House prices and fertility in South Africa: A spatial econometric analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D.
  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo

Abstract

In this paper, the effect of house prices on fertility is analysed across South African provinces using spatial Durbin model. This approach assumes spatial linkages through both endogenous and exogenous variables while allowing the total housing effect on fertility to be decomposed into direct and indirect effects. Empirical results using provincial annual data from 1998 to 2015 indicate that housing market plays an important role in the fertility decision besides female job participation and labour market condition. Particularly, an increase in regional house prices results in a decrease in local and subsequently national fertility rate. However, the spillover effect to adjacent provinces appears to be positive and significant, except in the small housing segment; suggesting that an increase in regional house prices will spur fertility in other regions. Intuitively, house price inflation in a province makes housing relatively affordable in adjacent regions; housing affordability being an important driver of fertility. Alternatively, this positive effect might also capture the income effect felt by homeowners following a rise in house prices, which might in turn be favourable to fertility due to financial edge. The insignificant indirect effect from the small housing segment might reflect the fact that small houses are less likely to be the family residential choice. These findings confirm the importance of spatiotemporal economic behavior in shaping regional fertility in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "House prices and fertility in South Africa: A spatial econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 100546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100546
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100546/1/MPRA_paper_100546.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2008. "Spatial Hedonic Models Of Airport Noise, Proximity, And Housing Prices," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 859-878, December.
    2. Clark, Jeremy & Ferrer, Ana, 2019. "The effect of house prices on fertility: Evidence from Canada," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-32.
    3. Noriko Mizutani, 2015. "The Effects of Housing Wealth on Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2710-2724.
    4. Cho, Sungwon, 2011. "Housing wealth effect on consumption: Evidence from household level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 192-194.
    5. William A.V. Clark, 2012. "Do women delay family formation in expensive housing markets?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(1), pages 1-24.
    6. Mussa, Abeba & Nwaogu, Uwaoma G. & Pozo, Susan, 2017. "Immigration and housing: A spatial econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 13-25.
    7. Gema Fernandez-Aviles & Roman Minguez & Jose-Maria Montero, 2012. "Geostatistical Air Pollution Indexes in Spatial Hedonic Models: The case of Madrid, Spain," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 34(2), pages 243-274.
    8. Pei-Syuan Lin & Chin-Oh Chang & Tien Foo Sing, 2016. "Do housing options affect child birth decisions? Evidence from Taiwan," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3527-3546, December.
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Convergence In Provincial-Level South African House Prices: Evidence From The Club Convergence And Clustering Procedure," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 2-17, March.
    10. Basu, Sabyasachi & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1998. "Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, July.
    11. Bruno Schoumaker, 2019. "Male Fertility Around the World and Over Time: How Different is it from Female Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(3), pages 459-487, September.
    12. Juan S. Amador‐Torres & Jose E. Gomez‐Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin‐Restrepo, 2018. "Determinants of housing bubbles' duration in OECD countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 140-157, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mussa, Abeba & Nwaogu, Uwaoma G. & Pozo, Susan, 2017. "Immigration and housing: A spatial econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 13-25.
    2. Seong-Hoon Cho & Dayton Lambert & Seung Kim & Roland Roberts & William Park, 2011. "Relationship between value of open space and distance from housing locations within a community," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 393-414, December.
    3. William A. V. Clark & Daichun Yi & Xin Zhang, 2020. "Do House Prices Affect Fertility Behavior in China? An Empirical Examination," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 423-449, September.
    4. Atalay, Kadir & Li, Ang & Whelan, Stephen, 2021. "Housing wealth, fertility intentions and fertility," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Kuethe, Todd H. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2008. "A Spatial Hedonic Model with Time-Varying Parameters: A New Method Using Flexible Least Squares," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6306, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Tun-Hsiang Yu & Seong-Hoon Cho & Seung Kim, 2012. "Assessing the Residential Property Tax Revenue Impact of a Shopping Center," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 604-621, October.
    8. Dupraz, P. & Osseni, A. & Bareille, F., 2018. "Assessing the direct and indirect impacts of breeding activities on residential values: a spatial hedonic approach in Brittany," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276994, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Masha Maslianskaia-Pautrel & Catherine Baumont pba148, 2016. "The nature and impacts of environmental spillovers on housing prices: A spatial hedonic analysis," Working Papers 2016.04, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    10. Todd H. Kuethe, 2012. "Spatial Fragmentation and the Value of Residential Housing," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(1), pages 16-27.
    11. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    12. Hyun, Dongwoo & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2018. "Spatial dependence in apartment transaction prices during boom and bust," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 36-45.
    13. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    14. Juergen Deppner & Marcelo Cajias, 2024. "Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in Algorithm-Driven Hedonic Models: A Spatial Cross-Validation Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 235-273, February.
    15. Orçun Moralı & Neslihan Yılmaz, 2022. "An Analysis of Spatial Dependence in Real Estate Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 93-115, January.
    16. Liv Osland & Inge Thorsen, 2013. "Spatial Impacts, Local Labour Market Characteristics and Housing Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(10), pages 2063-2083, August.
    17. Mangum, Kyle & Molloy, Raven, 2021. "Migration and Housing special issue: Introduction from Editors Kyle Mangum and Raven Molloy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Ünsal Özdilek, 2020. "Land and building separation based on Shapley values," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Ahmed Laatabi & Nicolas Marilleau & Tri Nguyen-Huu & Hassan Hbid & Mohamed Ait Babram, 2018. "ODD+2D: An ODD Based Protocol for Mapping Data to Empirical ABMs," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(2), pages 1-9.
    20. Baylis, Kathy & Paulson, Nicholas D. & Piras, Gianfranco, 2011. "Spatial Approaches to Panel Data in Agricultural Economics: A Climate Change Application," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 325-338, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; fertility; spatial panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.