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How to Deal with a Coronavirus Economic Recession?

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  • Popov, Vladimir

Abstract

2020 world economic downturn associated with the restrictions intended to fight COVID-19 pandemic is a structural recession caused by adverse supply shock. It is similar to recessions caused (or aggravated) by post war conversion of defense industries, by oil price shocks (1973, 1979, 2007), and by the transition to the market in post-communist countries in the 1990s (transformational recession). Whereas traditional Keynesian policy (absorption of adverse supply shock by means of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy) can help, best results are achieved by government industrial policies promoting restructuring – transferring resources (capital and labor) from the contracting industries to the expanding. The experience of China and some other East Asian countries that seem to be more successful in overcoming the coronavirus recession provides additional evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, Vladimir, 2020. "How to Deal with a Coronavirus Economic Recession?," MPRA Paper 100485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100485
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Popov Vladimir, 2016. "What can Uzbekistan tell us about industrial policy that we did not already know," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 1, pages 5-25.
    2. Challet, Damien & Solomon, Sorin & Yaari, Gur, 2009. "The universal shape of economic recession and recovery after a shock," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    3. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
    4. Vladimir Popov, 2007. "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(1), pages 1-31, March.
    5. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2006. "Эволюционная Теория Экономической Политики: Часть I: Опыт Быстрого Развития [An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Policy: Part I: The Experience of Fast Development]," MPRA Paper 22168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. V. Popov., 2007. "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: 15 Years Later," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    7. Dariusz K. Rosati, 1994. "Output decline during transition from plan to market: a reconsideration," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(4), pages 419-441, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Popov, Vladimir, 2024. "Китайская Модель: Ретроспектива И Перспектива [The Chinese model: Retrospective and perspective]," MPRA Paper 121802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Popov, Vladimir, 2024. "Сколько Прав Нужно Человеку: Взлет И Падение Либерализма [How many rights does a human need: The rise and fall of liberalism]," MPRA Paper 120479, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural recession; adverse supply shock; demand shock; conventional Keynesian response to recession; restructuring; industrial policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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