IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pid/wpaper/202312.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Federal Tax Revenue Forecasting of Pakistan: Alternative Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Syeda Um Ul Baneen

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

Every year, there are forecasting errors in Pakistan’s federal tax revenues. From 1970 to 2020, the federal government has significant forecast errors for all types of tax revenues. Using 1970-2014 data, two-thirds of the time, total federal taxes were overestimated by more than five percent (Qasim & Khalid, 2016). Errors in tax revenue forecasts directly affect budget formulation. The consequences of such errors are misleading tax revenue targets leading to wrong allocation of resources resulting in arbitrary cuts at the end of fiscal year such as a cut in development expenditures and/or an increase in the unanticipated debt burden. This, from policy perspectives, have long-run monetary and fiscal effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Syeda Um Ul Baneen, 2023. "Federal Tax Revenue Forecasting of Pakistan: Alternative Approaches," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:12, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2023:12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://file.pide.org.pk/pdfpideresearch/wp-23-12-federal-tax-revenue-forecasting-of-pakistan-alternative-approaches.pdf
    File Function: First Version, 2023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Safo OFORI & Abel FUMEY & Edward NKETIAH-AMPONSAH, 2020. "Forecasting Value Added Tax Revenue in Ghana," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(2), pages 63-99.
    2. Ondřej Bayer, 2013. "Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 59-73.
    3. Glenn Jenkins & CHUN-YAN KUO & GANGADHAR SHUKLA, 2000. "Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting," Development Discussion Papers 2000-05, JDI Executive Programs.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2023. "Опростяване И Усъвършенстване [Simplifying and Improving]," Post-Print hal-03989969, HAL.
    2. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2022. "Simplify and Improve: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 633-654.
    3. Sean Dougherty & Pietrangelo Biase, 2021. "Who absorbs the shock? An analysis of the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 crisis on different levels of government," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 517-540, July.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Burak Emil & Nemec Juraj, 2016. "Main Factors Determining the Slovak Tax System Performance," NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 9(2), pages 185-197, December.
    6. Christos Papageorgiou & Panagiotis Farlekas & Zacharias Dermatis, 2021. "Assessing the impact of excise duties on a state’s revenues: the case of Greece," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 387-412.
    7. Sabaj, Ernil & Kahveci, Mustafa, 2018. "Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 84404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U-Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    9. Machado, Roberto & Zuloeta, José, 2012. "The Impact of the Business Cycle on Elasticities of Tax Revenue in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4064, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2023. "Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models," Papers 2303.09405, arXiv.org.
    11. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Development of Prediction Model of Basic Budget Parameters in Russian Federation," Published Papers r90220, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    12. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Theoretical Basis of Prediction of Main Budget Parameters of Country," Published Papers r90221, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Chimilila, Cyril, 2017. "Forecasting Tax Revenue and its Volatility in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(1), January.
    14. Manuel R. Agosin & Alberto Daniel Barreix & Roberto Machado & Juan C. Gómez Sabaini & Jorge Cornick & Carlos Acevedo & Mauricio González Orellana & Osvaldo H. Schenone & Carlos de la Torre, 2005. "Recaudar para crecer: Bases para la reforma tributaria en Centroamérica," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 20678 edited by Manuel R. Agosin & Alberto Daniel Barreix & Roberto Machado, February.
    15. Juraj Nemec & Ladislav Pompura & Vladimír Šagát, 2015. "Administrative Costs of Taxation in Slovakia," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-61.
    16. Gangadha Prasad Shukla & Duc Minh Pham & Michael Engelschalk & Tuan Minh Le, 2011. "Tax Reform in Vietnam," World Bank Publications - Reports 26851, The World Bank Group.
    17. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Methodological Principles of Prediction of Tax Revenues of Budgetary System," Published Papers r90219, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    18. Nepal Rastra Bank & Nepal Rastra Bank, 2018. "Macro Modeling Practices at Nepal Rastra Bank," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, April.
    19. Hovick Shahnazarian & Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2017. "Forecasting and Analysing Corporate Tax Revenues in Sweden Using Bayesian VAR Models," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 50-74, Autumn.
    20. Agosin, Manuel R. & Barreix, Alberto Daniel & Machado, Roberto & Gómez Sabaini, Juan C. & Cornick, Jorge & Acevedo, Carlos & González Orellana, Mauricio & Schenone, Osvaldo H. & De la Torre, Carlos, 2005. "Recaudar para crecer: Bases para la reforma tributaria en Centroamérica," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 276, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Buoyancy Approach; LASSO; Marginal Tax Rate; Tax Revenue Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2023:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.