IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rnp/ppaper/r90219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Methodological Principles of Prediction of Tax Revenues of Budgetary System

Author

Listed:
  • P. A. Nazarov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Kazakova, Maria

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

Analysis of the dynamics of the main parameters of the federal budget in 2005-2007 and in 2008-2009 shows that a significant part of the changes of these parameters is explained by the state of the world's foreign economic conditions, while the identification of stable relationships between the dynamics of the budget parameters and the basic macroeconomic indicators is a task that requires extra special analysis. In this regard, relevant to the study is the relationship between these parameters and the main macroeconomic variables. The aim of this work is to study the methodological problems in predicting the basic parameters of the budgetary system, including revenues from the main taxes and government spending, in order to use these results when making decisions in the area of ??fiscal policy, as well as the publication of forecasts on a regular basis.

Suggested Citation

  • P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Methodological Principles of Prediction of Tax Revenues of Budgetary System," Published Papers r90219, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:r90219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ppaper/r90219.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    4. Marisa Bucheli & Nora Lustig & Máximo Rossi & Florencia Amábile, 2014. "Social Spending, Taxes, and Income Redistribution in Uruguay," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(3), pages 413-433, May.
    5. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 641-660, December.
    6. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The Euro Area Crisis: Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 683-710, September.
    7. Priit Vahter, 2010. "Does FDI spur innovation, productivity and knowledge sourcing by incumbent firms? Evidence from manufacturing industry in Estonia," Discussion Papers 10/09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    8. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    11. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    12. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, April.
    13. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    14. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    17. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    18. H. Theil & S. Wage, 1964. "Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 198-206, January.
    19. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
    20. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    21. Kurt F. Lewis & Charles H. Whiteman, 2015. "Empirical Bayesian Density Forecasting in Iowa and Shrinkage for the Monte Carlo Era," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 15-35, January.
    22. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    23. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2010. "Inference in Nearly Nonstationary SVAR Models With Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-12.
    24. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    25. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    26. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    27. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    28. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    29. Stefania D'Amico & Mira Farka, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137, January.
    30. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    31. Gamboa, Ana Ma. Sophia J., 2002. "Development of Tax Forecasting Models: Corporate and Individual Income Taxes," Discussion Papers DP 2002-06, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    32. Yolanda Kodrzycki, 1994. "Estimating revenues from tax reform in transition economies," Working Papers 94-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    33. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    34. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    35. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    36. Astrid Kiil & Kurt Houlberg, 2014. "How does copayment for health care services affect demand, health and redistribution? A systematic review of the empirical evidence from 1990 to 2011," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(8), pages 813-828, November.
    37. Fono, Louis Aime & Gwet, Henri & Bouchon-Meunier, Bernadette, 2007. "Fuzzy implication operators for difference operations for fuzzy sets and cardinality-based measures of comparison," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 314-326, November.
    38. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    39. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    40. Valerija Botrić & Maruška Vizek, 2012. "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 15(1), pages 23-36, May.
    41. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    42. Glenn Jenkins & CHUN-YAN KUO & GANGADHAR SHUKLA, 2000. "Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting," Development Discussion Papers 2000-05, JDI Executive Programs.
    43. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    44. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Development of Prediction Model of Basic Budget Parameters in Russian Federation," Published Papers r90220, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Theoretical Basis of Prediction of Main Budget Parameters of Country," Published Papers r90221, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    5. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    6. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    7. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.
    8. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
    9. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    11. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    12. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    13. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    15. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 75-102, October.
    16. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2014. "Sign restrictions and statistical identification under volatility breaks -- Simulation based evidence and an empirical application to monetary policy analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100326, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    19. Victor Pontines, 2021. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: empirical evidence from Korea," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1311-1350, September.
    20. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget; Russia; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:r90219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RANEPA maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aneeeru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.