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Developing an Early Warning System for BOP and Financial Crises: The Case of the Philippines

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  • Yap, Josef T.

Abstract

After the onset of the East Asian financial crisis, the interest in early warning system has been revived. While there are different causes to which crises can be attributed, early warning system can be utilized to predict its emergence via monitoring of key economic variables. Thus, policymakers are granted sufficient time to implement policy measures meant to minimize the adverse impacts of the crisis, if not to completely curb it. Although there are other methods to identify possible indicators, like the probability approach, the EWS developed by Kaminsky and Reinhart, is used in this paper because of various issues the probability approach are not capable of addressing. The concept of EWS is then applied to the Philippines. The study has identified two episodes of currency crises: October 1983 and September 1997. However, the computation of time-series probabilities is slightly modified. Results lend validity to the hypothesis of self-fulfilling crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yap, Josef T., 1998. "Developing an Early Warning System for BOP and Financial Crises: The Case of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 1998-40, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_1998-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Morris Goldstein, 1997. "The causes and propagation of financial instability : lessons for policymakers, commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 97-116.
    5. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lamberte, Mario B. & Yap, Josef T., 2001. "Monitoring Economic Vulnerability and Performance: Applications to the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2001-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    3. Iustina Boitan, 2012. "Development of an Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality. A Case Study on Romania," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(3), pages 347-362.

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