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Development of an Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality. A Case Study on Romania

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  • Iustina Boitan

Abstract

The current financial crisis has boosted the efforts of international financial institutions to strengthen collaboration in the field of banking supervision, with a particular focus on macro prudential supervision. One of the stated objectives is the creation of a warning system, in which economic and financial vulnerabilities at the regional level will be coupled with the potential for spillovers or contagion between markets and countries. The aim of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight, at an earlier stage, the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. The paper focuses on the relationship between several macroeconomic and bank-specific variables and overdue and doubtful loans. The warning system developed will be used further to made predictions on the degree of credit portfolio impairment, under the auspices of the actual financial crisis.

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  • Iustina Boitan, 2012. "Development of an Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality. A Case Study on Romania," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(3), pages 347-362.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2012:y:2012:i:3:id:428:p:347-362
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Byungun Yoon & Taeyeoun Roh & Hyejin Jang & Dooseob Yun, 2019. "Developing an Risk Signal Detection System Based on Opinion Mining for Financial Decision Support," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-26, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning system; logistic regression; probability of deterioration of the loan portfolio; goodness-of-fit tests; predictive ability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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