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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Magdalena Szyszko

    (Wyzsza Szkola Bankowa w Poznaniu, Poland)

  • Karolina Tura

    (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu, Poland)

Abstract

Producing and revealing inflation forecasts is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations are analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers July 2002 - end of 2013. Its methodology includes the qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results show the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Szyszko & Karolina Tura, 2014. "Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of Czech Republic," Working Papers 49/2014, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no49
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    7. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-1660, December.
    8. Amir Kia & Hilde Patron, 2004. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 04-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karolina TURA-GAWRON, 2018. "Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 42-56, September.
    2. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 286-299.
    3. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    4. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    5. Jacek Białek & Elżbieta Roszko-Wójtowicz, 2021. "Dynamics of price level changes in the Visegrad group: comparative study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 357-384, February.
    6. Karolina Tura-Gawron, 2016. "What Is The Central Bank Effectively Targeting In Practice? Svensson’S Concept Of Inflation Forecast Targeting And Measures Of Inflation Projections-The Experiences Of Selected European Countries," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 38, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology, revised Jul 2016.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation forecasts; inflation forecast targeting; policy path; inflation expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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