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Monetary Policy Neutrality: Sign Restrictions Go to Monte Carlo

Author

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

A new-Keynesian DSGE model in which contractionary monetary policy shocks generate recessions is estimated with U.S. data. It is then used in a Monte Carlo exercise to generate artificial data with which VARs are estimated. VAR monetary policy shocks are identified via sign restrictions. Our VAR impulse responses replicate UhligÕs (2005, Journal of Monetary Economics) evidence on unexpected interest rate hikes having ambiguous effects on output. The mismatch between the true (DSGE-consistent) responses and those produced with sign-restriction VARs is shown to be due to the low relative strength of the signal of the monetary policy shock. We conclude that UhligÕs (2005) finding is not inconsistent with monetary policy non-neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Monetary Policy Neutrality: Sign Restrictions Go to Monte Carlo," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0151, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0151
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Matějů, 2019. "What Drives the Strength of Monetary Policy Transmission?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 59-87, September.
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    3. Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander & Maxand, Simone, 2019. "Statistical identification in SVARs - Monte Carlo experiments and a comparative assessment of the role of economic uncertainties for the US business cycle," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 375, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 33133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange & Simone Maxand, 2022. "Data‐driven identification in SVARs—When and how can statistical characteristics be used to unravel causal relationships?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 668-693, April.
    6. Jakub Mateju, 2013. "Explaining the Strength and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy Transmission: A Panel of Impulse Responses from a Time-Varying Parameter Model," Working Papers IES 2013/18, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2013.
    7. Wiriyawit Varang & Wong Benjamin, 2016. "Structural VARs, deterministic and stochastic trends: how much detrending matters for shock identification," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 141-157, April.
    8. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Bruno Perdigão, 2019. "“Still" an Agnostic Procedure to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers Series 494, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Jorge Alberto Fornero & Roque Esteban Montero & Andrés J. Yany, 2017. "Reassessing the Effects of Foreign Monetary Policy on Output: New Evidence from Structural and Agnostic Identification Procedures," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), International Spillovers of Monetary Policy, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 31-72, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; VARs; sign restrictions; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; monetary neutrality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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