IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/1074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Frederick Van Der Ploeg
  • Tim Willems

Abstract

Since the post-Covid rise in inflation has been accompanied by strong wage growth, the distributional conflict between wage- and price-setters (both wishing to attain a certain markup) has regained prominence. We examine how a central bank should resolve a “battle of the markups” when aspired markups are cyclically sensitive, highlighting a new “aspirational channel” of monetary transmission. We establish conditions under which an inflationary situation characterized by inconsistent aspirations requires a reduction in economic activity, to eliminate worker-firm disagreement over the appropriate level of the real wage. We find that countercyclical markups and/or a flat Phillips curve call for more dovish monetary policy. Estimating price markup cyclicality across 61 countries, we find evidence for countercyclicality in most of them.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick Van Der Ploeg & Tim Willems, 2025. "Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission," Economics Series Working Papers 1074, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8d12244e-3863-439b-b265-daff0bc6c06c
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    2. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    4. Roeger, Werner, 1995. "Can Imperfect Competition Explain the Difference between Primal and Dual Productivity Measures? Estimates for U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 316-330, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Van Der Ploeg, Frederick & Willems, Tim, 2023. "Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 18436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2012. "Factor shares, the price markup, and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 181-198.
    4. Ebell, Monique & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2007. "Real origins of the Great Depression: Monopolistic competition, union power, and the American business cycle in the 1920s," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nir Klein, 2011. "South Africa: The Cyclical Behavior of the Markups and its Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2011/204, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Rasmus Wiese & Joåo Tovar Jalles & Jakob de Haan & João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Labour Market Counter-Reforms in OECD Countries: Conditional Impact on Output and Employment Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 11199, CESifo.
    9. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Albrecht Ritschl & Monique Ebell, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," 2007 Meeting Papers 712, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Heikki Kauppi & Erkki Koskela & Rune Stenbacka, 2004. "Equilibrium Unemployment and Capital Intensity Under Product and Labor Market Imperfections," CESifo Working Paper Series 1343, CESifo.
    12. Stirati, Antonella & Paternesi Meloni, Walter, 2021. "Unemployment and the wage share: a long-run exploration for major mature economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 330-352.
    13. Michelle Gilmartin & David Learmouth & J Kim Swales & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2013. "Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(4), pages 814-834, April.
    14. Raper, Kellie Curry & Love, H. Alan, 1999. "MONOPSONY POWER IN MULTIPLE INPUT MARKETS: A Nonparametric Approach," Staff Paper Series 11656, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    15. Ludger Linnemann, 1999. "Sectoral and aggregate estimates of the cyclical behavior of markups: Evidence from Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 480-500, September.
    16. Chéron, Arnaud & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François, 2004. "Labor Market Institutions and the Employment-Productivity Trade-Off: A Wage Posting Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 1364, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Sergio Destefanis & Matteo Fragetta & Giuseppe Mastromatteo & Nazzareno Ruggiero, 2020. "The Beveridge curve in the OECD before and after the great recession," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 411-436, September.
    18. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Manthos D., 2011. "Bank-level estimates of market power," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 508-517, August.
    19. Milen Velev, 2015. "A research on the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 40-59,60-79.
    20. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    21. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Anne Pouliquen to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.