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States and wars: China’s long march towards unity and its consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD

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  • Shuo Chen
  • Debin Ma

Abstract

We examine the long-term pattern of state formation and the mythical historical Chinese unity under one single political regime based on the compilation of a large geocoded annual data series of political regimes and incidences of warfare between 221 BC and 1911 AD. By classifying our data sets into two types of regimes - agrarian and nomadic – and three types of warfare– agrarian/nomadic, agrarian/agrarian and internal rebellions – and applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we find that nomadic-agrarian warfare and internal rebellion strengthens unification but agrarian/agrarian warfare entrenches fragmentation. We complement our econometrics exercise with an in-depth historical narrative by demonstrating that while warfare is a proximate cause for Chinese state formation and unity, the ultimate cause lies in a tripartite synthesis of Chinese ideology, institution and environment. We further discuss the long-run implications of Chinese unity on economic performance in a global context.

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  • Shuo Chen & Debin Ma, 2022. "States and wars: China’s long march towards unity and its consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _199, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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