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Evaluating Time Series Models in Short and Long-Term Forecasting of Canadian Air Passenger Data

Author

Listed:
  • Emir Emiray

    (Transport Canada)

  • Gabriel Rodriguez

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

Abstract

This paper uses six time series models to forecast seasonally unadjusted monthly data of Canadian enplaned/deplaned air passengers, for the domestic, transborder and international sectors. We find that forecasting performance of the models varies widely across series and forecast horizons. Our forecasting results are compared with forecasts published by Transport Canada’s Aviation Forecasting Division.

Suggested Citation

  • Emir Emiray & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Evaluating Time Series Models in Short and Long-Term Forecasting of Canadian Air Passenger Data," Working Papers 0306E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0306e
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    File URL: http://sciencessociales.uottawa.ca/economics/sites/socialsciences.uottawa.ca.economics/files/0306E.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Poyago-Theotoky, Joanna, 1998. "R&D Competition in a Mixed Duopoly under Uncertainty and Easy Imitation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 415-428, September.
    5. Klette, T.J. & Moen, J. & Griliches, Z., 1999. "Do Subsidies to Commercial R&D Reduce Market Failures? Microeconometric Evaluation Studies," Papers 16/99, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    6. Lakdawalla, Darius & Sood, Neeraj, 2004. "Social insurance and the design of innovation incentives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 57-61, October.
    7. Emmanuel Petrakis & Joanna Poyago‐Theotoky, 2002. "R&D Subsidies versus R&D Cooperation in a Duopoly with Spillovers and Pollution," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, March.
    8. Martin, Stephen & Scott, John T., 2000. "The nature of innovation market failure and the design of public support for private innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 437-447, April.
    9. Karolina Ekholm & Johan Torstensson, 1997. "High-Technology Subsidies in General Equilibrium: A Sector-Specific Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1184-1203, November.
    10. Miyagiwa, Kaz & Ohno, Yuka, 2002. "Uncertainty, spillovers, and cooperative R&D," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 855-876, June.
    11. Carl Davidson & Paul Segerstrom, 1998. "R&D Subsidies and Economic Growth," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 548-577, Autumn.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasts; Seasonal Unit Roots; ARIMA Models; Periodic Autoregressive Models; Structural Time Series Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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