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Forest Income and Livelihoods on Pemba: A Quantitative Ethnography

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  • Andrews, Jeffrey
  • Borgerhoff Mulder, Monique

Abstract

This paper offers a systematic approach to quantifying the socio-economic role of forests for 'forest-dependent' communities. Focusing on the island of Pemba (Zanzibar, Tanzania), we investigate how forest income contributes to livelihood portfolios, local inequality, and households' insurance against shocks. We also examine how forest income is affected by local institutions and household socio-demographics. We use a series of non-parametric measures in conjunction with multi-level Bayesian models supported by directed acyclic graphs to address these questions. On average, we find that 27% of household income comes from forests, with 83% of that value deriving from fuel products, and that 62% of the total value of forest products are harvested from the agroforestry scrub matrix. At the same time, forest income scales positively with income, forest-dependency scales negatively. Top income earners control ~4 times more forest income than low earners. However, when we consider forestry against other economic sectors, forest income reduces overall income inequality on the island. Despite forests being critical for the poor, we find it offers little insurance against shocks, especially for the vulnerable. In fact, in contrast to expectations, we find that the well-insured are the most likely to increase forest use in response to shocks. Regarding institutions, most forest products come from either government land or land owned by other private individuals, indicating weak tenure institutions on the island. Finally, young, poorly educated male-headed households, which are not integrated into markets, are the most likely to have high forest income. However, female-headed households are generally more dependent due to a lack of alternative income sources. Our results are encouraging as the use of tools from formal causal inference and detailed Bayesian modelling, in conjunction with a quantitative ethnography, build upon previous findings while improving our understanding of local socio-ecological systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrews, Jeffrey & Borgerhoff Mulder, Monique, 2022. "Forest Income and Livelihoods on Pemba: A Quantitative Ethnography," SocArXiv z8n3p, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:z8n3p
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/z8n3p
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    Cited by:

    1. Festus O. Amadu & Daniel C. Miller, 2024. "Food security effects of forest sector participation in rural Liberia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 16(5), pages 1099-1124, October.
    2. Bitzer, Verena & Moździerz, Monika & Kuijpers, Rob & Schouten, Greetje & Juju, Denabo Billo, 2024. "Gender and forest resources in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic literature review," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Gregor Mager & Anja Faße, 2024. "The contribution of smallholders' livelihood activities on income inequality and poverty: Case study from rural Tanzania," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 644-676, January.
    4. Andrews, Jeffrey & Borgerhoff Mulder, Monique, 2024. "The value of failure: The effect of an expired REDD+ conservation program on residents’ willingness for future participation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Amadu, Festus O. & Miller, Daniel C., 2024. "The impact of forest product collection and processing on household income in rural Liberia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Meyer, Jessica, 2023. "How do forests contribute to food security following a weather shock? Evidence from Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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