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Aplicação do modelo ARIMA para previsão de vendas da rede de farmácias Rossmann

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  • Santana, Marcos Vinicius Lira
  • Gonçalves, Eva Wilma Senhorinho

Abstract

É essencial para as empresas conseguir obter uma boa previsão de vendas diárias a partir de informações anteriores relacionadas às vendas de seus produtos e/ou serviços. Através dessa previsão a empresa pode se preparar para as variações de mercado, além disso uma previsão de vendas correta permite ter uma melhor percepção de pontos de melhoria na equipe. Dessa forma, este estudo teve como objetivo prever as vendas diárias de uma das maiores redes de farmácias da Europa, a Rossmann. Para isso, com o auxílio do software R, realizou-se uma análise dos dados coletados através de estatísticas descritivas e visualizações gráficas. Em seguida, utilizou-se o Modelo Autorregressivo Integrado De Médias Móveis (ARIMA) para a construção de 10 modelos, e a partir do valor do Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC) foi escolhido o melhor modelo. Como resultado, percebeu-se que o modelo ARIMA (1,2,1) apresentou os melhores resultados.

Suggested Citation

  • Santana, Marcos Vinicius Lira & Gonçalves, Eva Wilma Senhorinho, 2022. "Aplicação do modelo ARIMA para previsão de vendas da rede de farmácias Rossmann," SocArXiv v4wce_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:v4wce_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/v4wce_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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