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Keynes’s Treatise, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Practice in Interwar Economics in the United States

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  • Biddle, Jeff E.

Abstract

In his Treatise on Probability Keynes criticized the tools of statistical inference derived from probability that were coming into use in the early 20th century, and outlined an alternative approach to statistical inference based on the logic of induction. This essay argues that Keynes’s ideas were embraced and echoed by several leading US economists during the 1920s and 1930s, including those developing and applying the most sophisticated statistical methods of the day. These economists expressed views regarding statistical inference that were quite similar to those found in Keynes’s Treatise, often citing Keynes as an authority in support. Also, the inferential methods recommended and actually employed by these writers were consistent with Keynes’s ideas about the proper methods of statistical inference.

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  • Biddle, Jeff E., 2022. "Keynes’s Treatise, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Practice in Interwar Economics in the United States," SocArXiv dnx3w_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:dnx3w_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dnx3w_v1
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    1. Sarle, Charles F., 1932. "Adequacy and Reliability of Crop Yield Estimates," Technical Bulletins 163379, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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